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Market Recap #3
The U.S. equity markets witnessed quite a turbulent session today, ending on a lower note across the major indices. Despite the anticipation for a tighter trading range ahead of tomorrow's critical CPI data (At least that was what I was expecting), intraday swings were considerably wide. Big tech was the main culprit, dragging the indexes down, while energy managed to outshine most sectors. The defensives showed resilience, aligning with a flight-to-safety theme, quite typical in such unsettled market environments.
The banking sector took a hit, failing to find respite after Moody's downgrade. This is a reflection of a nuanced complexity that challenges traditional macroeconomic understanding. Treasury yields exhibited some reprieve despite over $100B in bond sales this week. The 10-year auction was almost in line, a subtle sign of market digestion and reassurance against the backdrop of systemic long-positioning concerns.
On the corporate front, Amazon's drone service struggles and Verizon's price increases may signal underlying operational and competitive pressures. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court's ruling favoring Apple could set an interesting precedent for the tech landscape.
Commodities and currencies were also in play. $GOLD is down, Bitcoin futures dipping, but $WTI crude rallying. Higher oil and gas prices are drawing attention as both a consumer headwind and an inflation tailwind.
Globally, geopolitical tensions brew, with President Biden aiming to curb U.S. investment in certain Chinese firms (ridiculous IMO!). Europe's natural gas prices tell a tale of supply anxiety, and China's luxury demand may be signaling broader economic narratives.
Corporate earnings portray a mixed picture, with some beating expectations and others faltering. The market is keenly dissecting each story, from the $LYFT softer Q4 outlook to Disney's ($DIS) potential challenges with peak travel demand.
The market's eye now turns to tomorrow's CPI figures, expected to align with the broader disinflation narrative, but the subtleties lie in core goods and the influence of higher energy prices. Auto insurance and shelter inflation could provide intriguing subtexts. All eyes there, recession keeps looming in every call I have with big investors despite the hedge funds short covering from last week.
Notable Gainers
$ARRY (Array Technologies, +24.1%): With an earnings beat that surprised the upside and bullish projections around margins, ARRY showed resiliency despite pushing some deliveries to 2024. The strategic positioning in the STI segment is compelling, revealing a re-rating potential as tax credits align with industry winds. A clear winner in a complex landscape.
$CELH (Celsius Holdings, +20.4%): A stellar Q2 and partnership with PepsiCo reflect deep strategic acumen and execution. This success story embodies the robustness of core marketing and product innovation, and the shares have reacted accordingly. The growing distribution points speak of the underlying strengths.
$BROS (Dutch Bros, +17.9%): Beating on margins and comp growth, with seemingly conservative guidance, and a surprising CEO transition, Dutch Bros' strategy and performance have captured the market's attention. A case study in long-term growth and operational wisdom.
$TOST (Toast, Inc., +14.6%): With results that resonated well and strong cost control, the organic growth, visibility, and upbeat commentary have all contributed to investors' positive sentiment.
$AXON (Axon Enterprise, +14.1%): A robust demand environment and clear outperformance in Cloud & Services business paint an optimistic picture for future growth. The upward revision of FY23 guidance shows confidence.
Notable Decliners
$UPST (Upstart Holdings, -34.2%): The market didn't look kindly at the constrained funding environment. Despite EPS beating expectations, the dampened visibility and cautious lending environment reflected an undercurrent of uncertainty.
$SMCI (Super Micro Computer, -23.4%): Caution seemed to prevail here with concerns on valuation and AI growth sustainability. A complex tech narrative wrapped in micro and macro trends.
$DOCS (Doximity, -22.8%): The cut in the workforce and cautious customer ad spending painted a bleaker future picture. Operational dynamics here seemed to weigh heavily on investor sentiment.
S&P 500 Sector Performance
In sectors, Energy outshone with a gain of +1.22%, reflecting global dynamics and tactical opportunities. Real Estate, Utilities, and Consumer Staples followed suit with modest gains. Meanwhile, Tech suffered, down -1.51%, with Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary trailing close behind.
I haven't been active today just analyzing the market i was not expecting range and i was not prepared for anything other than read and wait for Disney Earnings, Wich IMO shows better earnings (GOOD MANAGMENT) less subscribers due to macro economic hurdles and dividends returning late '23? lets see how everything reacts tomorrow!!

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