Let's have a look back in history. Remember some months ago, older followers here will remember that I kept saying "Peak Inflation means Stocks Bottom". Of course Peak Inflation came in late June, and then stocks Bottomed 3 months later. It was difficult to tell that it was Peak Inflation at the time because inflation started falling for 3 months, but we couldn't be sure that was definitely the peak. Just like right now, we can't be sure if 3.0% last month was the bottom? Is it rising from here at 3.2 and then higher in the months that follows? Was 3.0% the "Bottom Inflation"?? It seems in Stagflationary periods like we are in now, Inflation and SP500 are in an INVERSE realtionship, as in Inflation up then Stocks go down, and vice versa. So looking at August 1872, it's very similar to now. PEAK Inflation happened in April 1970 and stocks bottomed a month later. Then inflation had been falling and stocks are back to ALMOST new ATH in August 1972, does this sound familiar? Because right now, we also have falling inflation and stocks bottomed a few months ago and rallied to near new Highs. See that inflation in August 1972 bottomed from 2.7 to go up to 3.0, and then steady rose next couple of years. Stocks did NOT respond to this BOTTOM Inflation right away, and kept making a NEW ATH later in the year. Until 5 months later in early Jan 1973, SP500 peaked and went into a major Bear Market. That is the kind of Blow Off Top I have been talking about. If inflation continues to steadily rise from here, then we could see history repeat itself again.

And they didn't have BTC back then so I don't have the data. But if SP500 or NASDAQ made a new ATH later this year, then it can only be good for BTC and Altcoins I think. And if 6-12 months from now, SP500 went into major bear market after a Blow Off Top like in 1973, then that would be pretty bad for BTC and Alts.

So it would seem quite important for us to figure out where inflation is headed. Since we saw PEAK inflation last year gave a pretty good signal on Stocks bottoming. Now we are probably seeing Bottom Inflation as CPI and PCE would likely rise from here. Keep in mind, yesterday we STILL saw Core CPI at 4.7%, that is inflation without Fuel and Food prices. And it would seem to me Petrol, Nat Gas and Grain prices might be higher in the next few months. So we could see Headline CPI rise from the 3.0% last months and MAYBE that was the bottom. If so, chances are in a few months that would be a major threat to SP500 as we saw in the 70s. Petrol broke out of a Falling Wedge as I warned 3 weeks ago, it nearly hit my target of 85, I think it can still stay strong for a while.

I think the most important 2 charts to watch is the BTC Rising Wedge and the USD Falling Wedge. Falling Wedges tend to break up, and Rising Wedges tend to break down. I've spoken a lot about this lately, the difficult part is trying to time the actual timing of the Break Out in USD.