Prediction: John Wick: Chapter 4 will make $65 million on Opening Weekend
From the content I've made throughout December and the first half of January on this platform, we all know that I love the Avatar franchise. I made a high-conviction bet that Avatar: The Way of Water would generate more box office sales than Avatar. Even though that bet didn't materialize, I am content to see that the film became the #3 highest-grossing film of all time.

Last month, I gave the CommonStock community a glimpse at the John Wick franchise and why that entertainment franchise shouldn't be ignored. It's rare to see an entertainment franchise see consistent growth in its box office revenues after each movie release. And I think that John Wick: Chapter 4 will create a new record in box office revenues for the movie franchise.

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Here's how the John Wick movies performed on opening weekend:

  1. John Wick (2014) - $14.4 million
  2. John Wick: Chapter 2 (2017) - $30.4 million
  3. John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum (2019) - $56.8 million

Here's their budgets:

  1. John Wick (2014) - $20 million
  2. John Wick: Chapter 2 (2017) - $40 million
  3. John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum (2019) - $75 million

And here's their overall box office revenues:

  1. John Wick (2014) - $88.8 million
  2. John Wick: Chapter 2 (2017) - $171.5 million
  3. John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum (2019) - $327.8 million

What we can clearly see is that each movie isn't making incremental gains; it's making leaps and bounds over its predecessor. As John Campea, a film critic that I find to have the best analysis of the box office, perfectly describes the beauty of the franchise's phenomenal performance by saying:

"As this franchise gets older and has been around a while now, it's getting a little bit long in the tooth, it's just gaining more and more of an audience as people are discovering John Wick for the first time. They're going out to see the openings." (source)

Deadline predicts that John Wick: Chapter 4 will generate between $60 million and $70 million on opening weekend. Interestingly, Campea thinks that this estimate is conservative and predicts that the movie can generate more on opening weekend. As further evidence of the franchise's success, the John Wick franchise is already filming the spin-off movie Ballerina and will release a show called The Continental on Peacock sometime this year.

Skeptics of Avatar: The Way of Water's box office performance point to the long run times as a reason for why people wouldn't want to see the movie. Yet we saw the movie become the third highest-grossing film in the box office. John Wick: Chatper 4 is said to have a run time of 3 hours too. Will that deter people from seeing the movie? I doubt it considering that it hasn't deterred people from seeing Avatar 2. It's likely that movies with longer running times are going to have an easier time attracting moviegoers.

To conclude, I predict that Jonh Wick: Chapter 4 will make $65 million on opening weekend. It's a conservative prediction but overall, I predict that the movie will $200 million in the box office (and hopefully more).
Nathan Worden's avatar
Lets see what happens! These are fun predictions and you do a great job covering the movie box office business :)



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