E-Commerce Sell-off
Right now the total market capitalization for $MELI, $SE, $CPNG, $SHOP, $ETSY and $GLBE is about $135 billion.

These are the dominant forces in their respective geographies and niches.

Furthermore, depending on the valuation you'd like to give to $AMZN's AWS segment, its e-commerce operations look very cheap now (if not damn near free).

Now compare this $135B and whatever Amazon's e-commerce operations are worth with global retail e-commerce figures expected to reach $7 trillion by 2025.

This is an apples to oranges comparison, and many other companies are involved -- but this difference feels too large not to at least acknowledge.

One year ago, Sea was worth $180 billion alone.

Now, this whole group is $135 billion.

The risk/reward has become fascinating across these stocks -- Amazon included.

And all of this comes with no mention of each company's optionality -- most of which are still relatively nascent.

Call me a sucker for roughed-up growth stocks, but I will gladly keep adding.
Of these seven stocks, how many will be multibaggers by 2030?
12%0
39%1-2
39%3-4
9%5+
41 VotesPoll ended on: 05/14/22
Eric Messenger's avatar
I’m not a fan of Etsy because as many times as I’ve shopped there, I’ve never once purchased anything. Not sure how they can outcompete anyone. EBay gets my money every time, the Etsy sellers had limitations on payment (only PayPal), higher prices, shipping costs, etc. Mot familiar with $CPNG or $GLBE but even as a value investor have been looking at the other 4 mentioned.
Josh Kohn-Lindquist's avatar
@wall_street_deebo That is probably the most significant thing Etsy is fighting right now. Tons of one-time buyers that go quiet for months on end.

I'm watching how they will improve continued engagement over time, otherwise, growth may not fully recover. At 21 times FCF, it is interesting to me, though.
Jensen Butler's avatar
Historic moves. What a time
Josh Kohn-Lindquist's avatar
@jensen Crazy stuff -- don't want to root for hardship, but these new prices make it much more fun to shop.

Just awful to browse my returns right now 😂
Rihard Jarc's avatar
e-commerce was and will be one of the strongest trends for the coming years. It is also always the "underdog" that people believe is a washed out trend, but still the penetration still has a lot of room.
Josh Kohn-Lindquist's avatar
@rihardjarc That feels very true right now.

I honestly think a lot of this still stems from people being excited to just leave there house for any reason whatsoever in 2021.

E-commerce is just getting started globally, at least over a long term time horizon.
Rihard Jarc's avatar
@joryko Yeah this year after all the lockdowns people want to shop more on location because of the experience, next year it will probably be more interesting because the long-term trends will kick it's upward trajectory back again.
Stock Metal Investment's avatar
My money is on $MELI and $AMZN. High convictions. $SE is also in the portfolio, all the way down at the bottom.
Josh Kohn-Lindquist's avatar
@stonkmetal I’d be surprised if they didn’t outperform over the next decade, even at Amazons size.
Seems a lot like Apple a few years ago when it was “too big” but just kept smashing the market.
Stock Metal Investment's avatar
@joryko Yeah, bought $MELI 2 days ago, buying $AMZN monday. "Safe" bets long term imo.

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