A Recession Does Not Care About Your Fundamental Analysis
One thing I speak out a lot on this platform about is buying solely off fundamental analysis. If we see a recession, no matter how strong the fundamental analysis is, the share value is going to decouple with it. Yes, profitable companies will hold up better than unprofitable ones, but I see so many people rushing to buy the dip just to see their positions down 20%+ in the next month.

Have some patience. Let the macro environment play out then buy some dips using technical analysis and fundamental analysis.

As a macro TA heavy guy, we still have a while to go before it’s a buy the dip type of environment.
Josh Rozin's avatar
Now THIS is a hot take. 🍿

No but for real, I’m sitting out for a bit longer. Macro environment is too uncertain for me to make any decisions. Still, imo people on Commonstock DCAing their portfolios for a 5+ year time horizon will still strike gold.
Preston | Investor Insight's avatar
@josh If we are looking at 5+ years absolutely but if I told you you could get 20% off or 80% off, wouldn’t you wait for 80% off?
A lot of people on CS will buy at 20% all the way down to 80% instead of waiting for a reversal or bottoming to buy around 80% down.

Timing the market is a real thing, it just involves learning technical analysis.
Josh Rozin's avatar
@investorinsight I mean, absolutely. I just couldn’t tell you what a bottom would even look like in this market. Hoping for a nice V shape but who knows, we could do anything.
Preston | Investor Insight's avatar
@josh Here is a great place to start. As a TA macro guy, I look for a base and break. Sure I won’t catch the exact bottom, but I for sure won’t buy the whole way down. This is called stage analysis and it’s used for macro TA trends. This might help you identify the trends on high time frames.

I think we could see $SPY around $200 by end of next year


Josh Rozin's avatar
@investorinsight Thanks for the info! I too am a TA guy, not enough to give any price targets (props to you) but enough to detect a macro breakout. These are super useful to me. Appreciate the write up!
Preston | Investor Insight's avatar
@josh I can’t take credit for these, but they are a strategy called stage analysis which I use often.

Happy to find another TA guy on the platform as many users are FA only. Main target on $SPY is $339 but we still have gaps to fill much lower that I think we could extend to $200. I posted a $SPY outlook a few weeks ago if you wanted to see where that $200 level came from.
Josh Rozin's avatar
@investorinsight Checking that out now 👀
Preston | Investor Insight's avatar
@josh Looks like it was on May 22nd just to help you out a little.
Josh Rozin's avatar
@investorinsight Haha thank you, got a little lost but enjoying getting lost in your previous analysis!
Preston | Investor Insight's avatar
@josh That’s motivating. I love to hear the posts are captivating and intriguing 👍🏼
Vincent Poy's avatar
I rather let it go up consecutively for a few days to confirm it's going up and lose a bit of the bottom profits than to think it's the bottom.
Preston | Investor Insight's avatar
@almighty188 Absolutely! Let it confirm a bottom then strike as the true trend reversal plays out 👌🏼
Chris's avatar
The only thing that makes sense to me is trend trading, i.e. determining the trend, in an objective way and trading in that direction.
Preston | Investor Insight's avatar
@etfs Trade the trend and don’t fight the Fed 👌🏼 Two very successful strategies to live by.
Joey Hirendernath's avatar
Since I am not well versed in TA timing a bottom is a very difficult skill to perfect. Any suggestions for resources that help you explain the basics without jargon ?
Preston | Investor Insight's avatar
@joeyhirendernath Take a look at stage analysis which is what I shared with Josh as well. It’s a great place to start learning high level. Would you be interested in me putting together a course on TA at some point?
Golden Lake Partners's avatar
Hey @investorinsight, any good sources to learn TA on youtube/books? Can you share that with the CS community please? Thanks!!