Devin LaSarre's avatar
$18.9m follower assets
Quick thoughts on Altria $MO Q2:
Q2 industry cig vols very weak. Prem purchases per trip in-line /w last year, but high gas reducing store trip frequency.

Share stable. Marlboro retail share up q/q .1 from 42.6 to 42.7. Y/y hare of prem segment more impressive, up .5 to 58.1.

Industry oral seg growth down -.5. Disappointing.

But on! growth impressive, with quarterly shipment vol up 57.4% y/y.

on! now holds a 4.9% share of oral tobacco product seg.

Lots of potential, though worth remembering, it's still being heavily discounted/subsidized.

JUUL writedown as expected. Val $450m. Now under 10% threshold to severe N-C, though no sense in doing so currently.

Not much said on $BUD

Not much clarity on the future of $PM IQOS deal.

Not much said on Poda. PMTA roadmap points to years before relevancy anyways.

The overall trend for combustibles persists. Like clockwork.

Total vols down. Prices up. Op Margins up.

Despite cig vols being exceedingly weak, FCF is robust.

Hitting full-year guide questionable? But headwinds may ease in second half 22. Each year, even after paying div, normally sitting on ~$1 bil extra cash. Likely going to BB, but potentially M&A, though the company has expressed specific focus on internal pipeline.

Overall, a rather uninspired qtr, but long-term thesis remains intact. Puff puff.

If you're interested in $MO or the US market + regulation broadly, read this:
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