@sammeciar to be fair, I was already down 94% on Invitae, so a rise of 80% wouldn’t have even gotten close to getting me back to even— but it still hurts to see!
I think this is an example of what @joryko was talking about when he said he had “No sell FOMO”
I.e. the fear of missing out on a great turn around story.
@tomato has also pointed out that once a stock is down so much that it’s an insignificant part of your portfolio, you don’t really get anything by selling it. Might as well write it off in your mind and see if they can make a comeback.
But the counter to that point is that ‘hey it’s still dead money, even if it’s only a little, might as well redeploy” — which is what I fell for here.
@sammeciar@joryko I've owned $NVTA since October 2020 and today's rise in that stock was by far the biggest one-day percentage gain I've ever had on a stock in my portfolio. Quite possibly the biggest one-day percentage gain I'll ever have in my entire investing career! The problem? The position had dwindled to less than a quarter percent of my portfolio...
So all I have is an amusing good story and a cool screenshot. I chock it up to the vast bucket of experience of being a long-term investor. It would certainly have been a mistake for me to add to this position at its recent lows. There were far too many outstanding questions about this company, and I think you were smart to sell, @nathanworden! There are much easier and better ways to make money out there (anybody checked $TTD today? :))
@growthinvesting Yes, so the thesis was that Invitae was going to be able to offer clinical grade genetics testing at a massive scale— and that the genetic data that could be used for treating and curing diseases. Scale was necessary to get useful data, so the company was hemorrhaging money to try and reach that scale. But then the macro environment turned and their runway got cut short. They continually diluted investors and there was no end in sight for that. I sold when the CEO, Sean George stepped down, marking the failure of their strategy and the beginning of a completely new one where they would need to charge much, much more for their genetic tests.
Basically, I had to admit to myself that the business model just isn't there right now, and that management doesn't have a clear plan for making it work either.
They're up big today because of solid Q2 revenue growth with a better-than-expected adjusted loss. They maintained their full-year revenue guidance and are saying they expect a return to stronger growth. This looked like it caused a lot of short sellers to cover their positions, and we got a bit of a squeeze today.
• a short squeeze impacting 22% of the liquid shares, or float, held short.
The stock then traded down ~47% on Thursday before appreciating ~19% on Friday.
Invitae’s recent portfolio consolidation and staff reductions have tilted the company toward profitability. While it still intends to offer one of the broadest and highest-quality molecular diagnostic testing menus and unique, population-scale digital health tools, unsettled market conditions are preventing Invitae from investing as aggressively in the genomic revolution as it had intended.
That said, it's encouraging to see sustained improvements across key performance metrics, including revenue/patients, operating expenses as a percent of revenue, and gross margins.
Invitae is a leading medical genetics testing company, thanks to its scalable variant interpretation engine, suite of digital and clinical services, and innovation in liquid biopsy.