"Gain Avoided"
Samuel Meciar's avatar
yikes.
Nathan Worden's avatar
@sammeciar to be fair, I was already down 94% on Invitae, so a rise of 80% wouldn’t have even gotten close to getting me back to even— but it still hurts to see!

I think this is an example of what @joryko was talking about when he said he had “No sell FOMO”

I.e. the fear of missing out on a great turn around story.

@tomato has also pointed out that once a stock is down so much that it’s an insignificant part of your portfolio, you don’t really get anything by selling it. Might as well write it off in your mind and see if they can make a comeback.

But the counter to that point is that ‘hey it’s still dead money, even if it’s only a little, might as well redeploy” — which is what I fell for here.
Josh Kohn-Lindquist's avatar
@nathanworden Very true, it is tricky. I can find 5-10 “broken” stocks in my portfolio and think - - if I sold them all, I could have one full position in something new I like. 😂

I’m not lucky/smart enough to correctly time both the selling of a current holding and the buying of a new stock, so I’ll just hold and avoid the selling FOMO.
Joshua Simka's avatar
@sammeciar @joryko I've owned $NVTA since October 2020 and today's rise in that stock was by far the biggest one-day percentage gain I've ever had on a stock in my portfolio. Quite possibly the biggest one-day percentage gain I'll ever have in my entire investing career! The problem? The position had dwindled to less than a quarter percent of my portfolio...

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So all I have is an amusing good story and a cool screenshot. I chock it up to the vast bucket of experience of being a long-term investor. It would certainly have been a mistake for me to add to this position at its recent lows. There were far too many outstanding questions about this company, and I think you were smart to sell, @nathanworden! There are much easier and better ways to make money out there (anybody checked $TTD today? :))
Eric Messenger's avatar
Damn I thought $TTD was having a good day😳
Nathan Worden's avatar
@wall_street_deebo There are defiantly some companies that are having a very good day 😆🙃
Modern Growth Investing's avatar
what happend? can you share with us why its going up? and why did you sell?
were you wrong about thesis?
Nathan Worden's avatar
@growthinvesting Yes, so the thesis was that Invitae was going to be able to offer clinical grade genetics testing at a massive scale— and that the genetic data that could be used for treating and curing diseases. Scale was necessary to get useful data, so the company was hemorrhaging money to try and reach that scale. But then the macro environment turned and their runway got cut short. They continually diluted investors and there was no end in sight for that. I sold when the CEO, Sean George stepped down, marking the failure of their strategy and the beginning of a completely new one where they would need to charge much, much more for their genetic tests.

Basically, I had to admit to myself that the business model just isn't there right now, and that management doesn't have a clear plan for making it work either.

They're up big today because of solid Q2 revenue growth with a better-than-expected adjusted loss. They maintained their full-year revenue guidance and are saying they expect a return to stronger growth. This looked like it caused a lot of short sellers to cover their positions, and we got a bit of a squeeze today.
Hedge Vision's avatar
What the…sold my position earlier this year, biotech companies are just not my thing due to a lack of understanding them
Nathan Worden's avatar
@hedgevision They are undoubtably hard. I'm definitely taking on more risk by choosing to invest in some of them.
AS's avatar
in Spain, but without the s
Jared Watson's avatar
Oh no… on the bright side you locked in that capital loss for taxes ✅
Nathan Worden's avatar
@wjared I definitely need a bright side right now!
StockOpine's avatar
Oh no. That hurts even if it is already 94% down from your initial cost.
Nathan Worden's avatar
@stockopine I do find it somewhat morbidly amusing that I was so capable of staunchly holding on the way down, but only once we reached the bottom I sold.
Eric Messenger's avatar
@nathanworden man a $100 investment down to $6, then back up to $10.80. Perfect example of how losses require much bigger gains to get back to even.
StockOpine's avatar
@nathanworden given that it was so insignificant to your portfolio you could just leave it there and forget about it. In any case it would require a 1667% rather than 80% to break even 😮
Nathan Worden's avatar
@stockopine It ended the day up 278% 😭 😭 😭
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Ben's avatar
It happens to everyone. Buying stocks is easy. Holding stocks are hard.
Nathan Worden's avatar
@rpinvestments Chalk it up to another battle scar 🤼
Samuel's avatar
Fitting graphic from @brianferoldi from his newsletter today......image

Nathan Worden's avatar
@sazu this is pretty much exactly what just happened to me! 🥲
Jensen Butler's avatar
@sazu this feels personal
Samuel's avatar
@nathanworden stay strong brother, there will be others where you will 100% realize the gains!
Nathan Worden's avatar
@sazu thanks I appreciate it— looking forward to those days :)
Samuel's avatar
@nathanworden they will come!! (Talking to myself partially here as well lol)
Nathan Worden's avatar
Here's what it looks like now 🫠
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So sad i missed dropping 5 grand on Ttd when it was 42 2 weeks ago
Nathan Worden's avatar
@nes $TTD fell so far so fast. But the rebound has been quick as well.
@nathanworden it’s the hot sauce On motley fool their will be another dip in sure
Daniel Budd's avatar
If it’s any consolation, I sold $TTD at the beginning of July 🙃
Nathan Worden's avatar
@dbudd Man... "maximum pain" is a real thing.
Dabin Choi's avatar
God Dang! And I thought $TQQQ was doing okay today.
Nathan Worden's avatar
@dabincicode71 pshhh 8%? Is this a gain for ants?

image

Jensen Butler's avatar
Oh boy of all the nice features Commonstock been rolling out I would not like to see this one on my charts 😂 especially wider timeframe sheesh
Nathan Worden's avatar
@jensen the visual is astounding. I much prefer it in the calls I got right— but nonetheless mesmerizing.
Investor from Nepal 🎄's avatar
Happens, stay strong 🤗
Nathan Worden's avatar
@investor_from_nepal thank you, I’ll carry on 🥹
Irish Born Investor's avatar
Phew!
Nathan Worden's avatar
@irish that was a close one!
Rihard Jarc's avatar
Even in the darkest times you still remain your smile, so the chart looks less depressing with your smiling picture :D
Nathan Worden's avatar
@rihardjarc gotta smile or you’ll cry 🥹

But yes, positivity and keeping a good artifice helps take things in stride :)
Rihard Jarc's avatar
@nathanworden 100% always better to smile than cry :D
Fat Baby Funds's avatar
“Gain avoided” 😂

Gotta always have some humor!
Nathan Worden's avatar
@fatbaby ya really do 🥲
Luka 🦉's avatar
hello Jim Cramer, is that you?
Nathan Worden's avatar
@stock.owl 😆🥲 It is I! Sir Jimmathy Cramer! image


Uzair Mengal's avatar
plz help
Andy Buchanan's avatar
Shares of Invitae traded up ~280% on Thursday after the company announced second-quarter earnings. What drove the stock price surge:
• a detailed and constructive quarterly earnings call,
• better-than-anticipated macro inflation reports,
• a short squeeze impacting 22% of the liquid shares, or float, held short.

The stock then traded down ~47% on Thursday before appreciating ~19% on Friday.

Invitae’s recent portfolio consolidation and staff reductions have tilted the company toward profitability. While it still intends to offer one of the broadest and highest-quality molecular diagnostic testing menus and unique, population-scale digital health tools, unsettled market conditions are preventing Invitae from investing as aggressively in the genomic revolution as it had intended.

That said, it's encouraging to see sustained improvements across key performance metrics, including revenue/patients, operating expenses as a percent of revenue, and gross margins.

Invitae is a leading medical genetics testing company, thanks to its scalable variant interpretation engine, suite of digital and clinical services, and innovation in liquid biopsy.
Sachiv's avatar
Pull that chart back 5 years and have a look… 🤓🔥🔥🤷🏾‍♂️
Dividend Dollars's avatar
Mission failed successfully 😂
Nathan Worden's avatar
@dividenddollars A+ way to put it 🥲
Conor Mac's avatar
How am I only just seeing this haha
Logan's avatar
Tough one!
Nathan Worden's avatar
@bang happens! Part of the ups and downs of investing!

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