Good morning contrarians! Stock index futures are quiet ahead of the CPI print at 0830…

Economists expect the headline CPI to come in at 0.6% month-over-month, significantly higher than the 0.2% MoM seen last month. This would push the year-over-year figure up to 3.6%.

The expectations for Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, are less worrisome: 0.2% MoM and 4.3% YoY, the latter constituting a drop from the 4.7% seen last month. Presumably this disconnect between core and headline figures is due to most of the last month’s price increases coming from fuel.

Seeing how Core is more closely watched by the Fed, it makes this figure the more important one to watch. Headline CPI is called headline CPI for a reason — it’s what gets the headlines and you can be sure to see a lot of clickbait-y drama about resurgent inflation, blah blah blah. Investors know to ignore this. Hopefully you do too.

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