recession or not?
Are we in a recession? Thoughts on this.
Nathan Worden's avatar
I'm leaning towards yes. I might be overly influenced by all the headlines about layoffs. But to me it would seem like growth has slowed unemployment is going up, inflation is high, asset prices have been falling.... feels like we're in the beginning of a recession.
joseph's avatar
@nathanworden I agree I think the previous levels were supported by the fed and government spending to keep us from sinking into a recession due to Covid like unemployment aid but since we had to pull away from those methods of survival we are just now feeling the effects of a slowed customer economy. Do you also think oil prices will fall or no?
Nathan Worden's avatar
@jdub I think we could see oil prices fall another $10. But I'm not an expert on the subject and that take is borrowed from this episode of 'The Macro Trading Floor':



joseph's avatar
@nathanworden I’ll take a look at this but I definitely think the WTI is due for a down tread.
Conor Mac's avatar
Not yet.
joseph's avatar
@investmenttalk why do you think that?
Conor Mac's avatar
@jdub I think it's the weirdest recession ever if it were one. Lots of conflicting data points, lots of warp still hanging over from covid bust, boom and bust. To be candid, I have no idea, but I am prepared for a recession.
joseph's avatar
@investmenttalk totally agree and what does a recession really mean for the average America?
Conor Mac's avatar
@jdub Ignoring cold data points, but I think for most, it's when the cost of living becomes that much harder to handle, job market becomes tighter, some may lose jobs, others may have to eat savings, etc etc. On the broad level, I am not seeing that atm. Tech layoffs may be a leading indicator for the rest of the job market, but most layoffs there have been from companies that hire too readily in the goods times, and have to get lean in the regular times.
joseph's avatar
@investmenttalk is that the case with google and Microsoft? Weird google would do a stock cut to sell more shares
Conor Mac's avatar
@jdub Especially big tech, they tend to hire excessively in the good times, so other firms can't hire them. Plus, they usually have the capital and margin to do so.

If you follow football, it's like Chelsea's youth squad. At certain points in history they controlled the majority of the youth market, and did little with most of the players, mostly so other teams could not sign them.
joseph's avatar
@investmenttalk big tech is something im going to be looking at this earnings. what companies are you watching for on the earning call?
Rihard Jarc's avatar
Yes.
joseph's avatar
@rihardjarc why is that
Rihard Jarc's avatar
@jdub according to long standing definition of what a recession is we are in one. If we changed the definition now to help our narrative that doesn't make it true.

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