Bull and Bear Summary for Coinbase
Great discussions about the $COIN direct listing happening in the chats on Commonstock over the past week.

I pulled together a summary of the Coinbase bull and bear cases from the different Commonstock chats.
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Coinbase Bull Case
  • Already profitable and growing fast
  • Q1 revenue surpassed 2020 annual revenue
  • Gatekeeper into DeFi for 56 million retail investors and 7k institutions
  • Banking incumbents are in major catch up mode
  • Coinbase is still accelerating into the DeFi verticals
  • It won't be easy to recapture the market share $COIN has already earned
  • Optionality to develop advanced custody for RIAs (which they are doing)
  • Institutional demand for BTC should continue to drive price appreciation
  • Ark estimates a CAGR above 15%/yr and is buying
  • If the UI can stay simple, it will continue to attract the general public
  • Most underestimate timeframe- its a 20 year game for crypto to develop
  • Most competitors will consolidate into a market leader, probably Coinbase
  • Coinbase is highly regulated and appears to be playing by the rules
  • Other exchanges underestimate the cost and barriers of regulation
  • Trusted brand

Coinbase Bear Case
  • Their position isn't defensible
  • Competition coming from centralized exchanges: Gemini, Binance, Kraken
  • "Race to the bottom" in fees likely to happen in crypto as it did with stocks
  • Decentralized exchanges will pose an even bigger threat long term
  • Uniswap already does more volume than Coinbase
  • Sushiswap and PancakeSwap growing fast the past several months
  • People will begin moving to other offerings as the space matures
  • Current valuation relies on cash flows estimated 10+ years in the future
  • Eventually banks like Chase will will integrate crypto
  • Cash App, Robinhood, PayPal are similar alternatives
  • $COIN's costs will stay fixed while ability to charge fees will contract
  • Too much hype

Thanks to @drew @mikemcg @mulligan @strategicinvestors @kyla whose comments in the chats I derived this summary from.

If you're not following these people yet^ you should be!
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