ThomasFJE's avatar
$18m follower assets
Why I believe the bear hasn’t left…
“If you’re predicting a soft landing, you’re going against decades of history” - Stanley Druckenmiller

“MARKETS FACE DOWNSIDE AFTER JULY JUMP; FED WILL NEED MORE HIKES TO COOL INFLATION, RISKING RECESSION: BRIDGEWATER'S PATTERSON”

“Neutral is to rate as transitory is to
inflation” - Bill Ackman

As much as I love the recent run up, it worries me. The biggest short term rallies happen during bear markets.

Some stats:

  • ‘08 had 5 relief rallies, averaging +14%
  • ‘01 had 6 relief rallies, averaging +17%

Why wouldn’t this be a bear market rally? I don’t see any positive signs from leading indicators. Fed isn’t as dovish as people think either.

Until inflation is under control, I’m very cautious!

Don’t get caught in the hype. Prices drive sentiment, not the other way around.
Conor Mac's avatar
Could just be a bear rally 🐱
The Thinking Investor's avatar
@investmenttalk If you zoom out to decades the market is a continuous cycle of bull and bear markets. This far the bulls have always won. This time is nothing different.
Conor Mac's avatar
@thethinkinginvestor love that. This tends to be how I view things. I don’t have the energy to worry about bear markets. They are always around the corner.
ThomasFJE's avatar
@investmenttalk @thethinkinginvestor Short term and long term investing thoughts are very different.
It’s completely fine being bearish short term for obvious reasons while also being a bull for obvious reasons!

I try to be as objective as possible. Not going to blindly short things and not going to keep adding to stocks just because “it always goes up”. 🙏🏼
Conor Mac's avatar
@smh different stokes, As they say!
Sachiv's avatar
…with retails’ sudden wake up call that inventory isn’t an issue(and competitive discounting to dump merchandise), commodity price whiplash, job cuts announced all over the place, i tend to agree with @smhbut that doesn’t mean I’m stopping my smaller shopping trips for my portfolio. $TXN added pre earnings and post earnings. $TSLA and $AAPL also added pre-earnings
ThomasFJE's avatar
@passiveinvestor All quality stocks 🤩

Author

Related