$10.1m follower assets
Goodbye VCs
If interest rates do continue (dot plot and B/S run off) valuations will continue compress, and as such the time it takes to take a company public will be lengthened. Rates regime starting to cause VC returns to have negative convexity as time horizons are extended as interest rates push upwards.
for most VC's yeah, top 10%ile will still kick ass
@growthinvesting Agreed, those who were conservative, and didn't fund crap (RIP tiger) will be okay\.
Incredible to see the delta between the NASDAQ and the Refinitiv Venture Capital Index between March 2020 and Q1 2022. If the Fed reversed course and stopped raising interest rates, would the assumption be that this dynamic would return?
@nathanworden I think the paradigm would shift. They will come back way more conservative.
@deerpointmacro Probably a good assumption— coming back more conservative would be an example of complex adaptive systems “learning” in action.
Make VC great again? (= Fund early-stage innovative long-shot ideas, rather than supplying late-stage growth fuel at inflated valuations.)
