The presentation does raise valid concerns about profitability, cost controls, and inherent value of Disney+. One should not rule out hubris when Iger made that aggressive bid for 21CF - he was on a roll with Pixar, Lucas, Marvel.
Reorientating $DIS to center around streaming does make sense in the world of DTC, but profitability appears to be dependent on many more subscribers above the guided 300-350mn range. See below my estimation of subs versus profits at Disney+, further comparing to $NFLX:
"Disney is targeting 300-350mn subscribers across Disney+, Hulu and ESPN by FY 2024. Extrapolating from the current revenue run-rate of $20bn with an average subscriber base of 230mn, this implies a potential annual recurring revenue base of $30bn by end of FY 2024, not dissimilar to where Netflix is today. Will it attain the same operating profit margin of 19.3% at that stage? Unlikely, given the breakeven guidance for the DTC business exiting FY 2024. Profitability will therefore have to depend on additional subscribers above the 300-350mn range guided. That is a lot of subscribers to bridge from the current 225mn to the promised land!"
@consumeowntech I shy away from the comparisons between Disney and Netflix because it's not apples-to-apples. Disney has a different and much more diversified business model. In my opinion, Disney has managed to build up Disney+ much more quickly than many were thinking and it's certainly no surprise that that would be expensive.
@joeyhirendernath have not gotten a chance to go through it yet but thank you for the tag. I’ve been very vocal about Disney and Iger on here so this should be a very interesting perspective. Disney pretty adamant about them not being on the board though