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Seeing a lot of people trying to make sense of moves across many names, asset classes, rates, & global capital markets in general. What’s an example of this bias you’ve seen lately? (click photo to expand)
Covid stimulus checks are often cited as the main driver of inflation, but I wonder how much ‘causality’ can be attributed to it. I don’t have enough expertise to have a strong opinion here, but it does make me curious.
@nathanworden Love this one. “All the money entering the stock market are just people who didn’t need their stimmy checks and put it into Robinhood” made for a real sexy headline, but I called 🧢 immediately. Pretty ignorant for the people who really ran with that one, as it was rather easy to refute. Cantillon effect overall suggested that was a fraction of it
@jensen exactly— it had some effect, but probably much much smaller than most people thought— likely a small fraction. Causation is perennially a stumbling block because many factors mixing together are what produce a result, and it’s tough to understand all the factors in detail.
Side note, love the use of “🧢” here 😄
@nathanworden yep. There are tons of examples of this in the field of nutrition and health & wellness with living habits as well that are fun to discuss
@jensen Agreed, that headline was straight 🧢. Most people weren’t investing their stimmy money imo but rather spending it on goods/services. Investment participation in the general population besides 401k contributions is pretty low from what i’ve experienced
