As we start of 2021, it's a good exercise to think about what makes a good bet.
The image below shows "as much of 2020 that fits on one graph." When I look at this, I find it hard to believe that anyone would have been able to not just bet that a particular event would occur, but also when it would occur AND how the event would move markets- let alone be able to do this in a sustained fashion.
This is why I find it easier to bet on a quality company's performance over time, regardless of an individual event that moves markets for the day.
This mindset helps me filter out the noise, and focus more on competitive dynamics that can give a company (and me) an edge.