Eric Pelnik's avatar
$273.5m follower assets
Looming decrease in spending to further impact the market
  • Consumer spending hasn't fully corrected (people are still paying for more streaming services than they need πŸ˜…)
  • As companies cut software and ad spend the companies they were paying for unneeded seats and paid acq for will have decreased earnings ($GOOGL, $ADBE, $META, $SNAP, etc)
  • Many institutions have already reacted to this, but there will be continued selling pressure
Prediction:
$SPY will be under $367/share on 7/15/2022
24 Votes
Golden Lake Partners's avatar
You buying puts?
Eric Pelnik's avatar
@goldenlacllc I'm not - although I should. The romantic in me has trouble actually betting against the general market despite me thinking it will go down in the short-term. Long-term I can't bet against progress.
delos's avatar
so this prediction implies a 3% decline in a month. would be great to see where this falls in the distribution of monthly returns, especially when the prior month has also seen a decline.
Eric Pelnik's avatar
@diggity pls fix thx
delos's avatar
@eric i comment mainly to keep track of my own feature requests
Eric Pelnik's avatar
cc @diggity @anant per our conversation
Paul Cerro's avatar
yea services still big

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