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Fed Speaker, Flash PMIs: Daily Contrarian, Sept. 22
Good morning contrarians! It’s been a pretty awful week for stocks, with the Nasdaq down 3.5% and S&P giving up 2.7%. They did tell us September was the worst month on the calendar for stocks and this year at least it seems to be living up to the billing.

This is the same playbook we’ve been following for at least a year now: Stocks rally on hope of a Fed pivot, then sink when the Fed comes out hawkish. Then there are intermittent rallies that seem to originate out of nowhere: this January and July come to mind.

Probably the overriding concern right now is that the Fed is going to break stuff. They did in March with the bank failures. That wasn’t enough to send the economy into recession, so now the expectation becomes that there will be more breakage.

Well, fine. Don’t fight the tape. If this is the price action you get, then roll with it. The Contrarian for his part is too shook to put any money to work right now. He’s taken on big losses with the Dollar General ($DG) holding and an in-store visit last week punctured his bullish hopes for that stock. If this is a buying opportunity it’s one he’s going to sit out — at least for now. If things get cheaper then that will change.

Free audio included with today’s briefing:
Fed Speaker, Flash PMIs
Stocks sold off yesterday on ‘higher for longer’ Fed fears, with little on the calendar today to change the narrative…

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