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Lululemon, Macy's, and Abercrombie all came out with a little update

First of all a little recap of the holiday season.
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In 2020 this was $188B a 32% growth.
In 2021 this was $205B an 8.6% growth.
And now 2022, 2.5% growth.

Back to the 3 companies.


It now expects that net revenue will be in the range of $2.660 billion to $2.700 billion, representing a 25%-27% increase compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021. The previous guidance range was $2.605 billion to $2.655 billion.

Gross margin for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022 to decline 90-110 basis points compared to its previous expectation for an increase of 10-20 basis points.

It's important to note that last quarter the company said that inventories at the end of the third quarter of 2022 increased 85% to $1.7 billion compared to $0.9 billion at the end of the third quarter of 2021.


Net sales are now expected to be at the low-end to mid-point of the previously issued range of $8.16B to $8.40B while adjusted diluted earnings per share are expected to be in the previously issued range of $1.47 to $1.67.

“Based on current macro-economic indicators and our proprietary credit card data, we believe the consumer will continue to be pressured in 2023, particularly in the first half, and have planned inventory mix and depth of initial buys accordingly."

In Q3 inventory was up 4% year-over-year and down 12% versus 2019.


Q4 Net sales to be up in the range of 1% to 2% (previously down 2%-4%), and operating margin in the range of 6%-8% (previously 5%-7%).

FY22 Net sales to be down around 1% (previously down 2%-3%), and operating margin in the range of 2.5%-3% (previously 2%-3%).

Abercrombie & Fitch brand continued in the holiday season with the women's business on track to deliver its highest fourth-quarter sales ever and acceleration in men's growth from third-quarter trends.

Hollister, the company expects to finish the fourth quarter with sales below 2021 levels.

In Q3 inventories were $742 million, an increase of 36% to Q3 2021.

I expect this trend to continue into the back half of 2023. Margin compression will be the key term used.

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