Throughout each week, I post threads on the economic happenings most days.
Every weekend I compile that info & throw it into a Market Outlook/Recap article.
It's A LOT to sift through, so below is a small summary of the highlights for each day.
Monday: The Chicago PMI came in at 42.8, lower than expectations, but higher than the prior.
Markets were timid today, but breadth was positive with winners beating losers by a solid margin at the exchanges.
Tuesday: The US Manufacturing PMI rose to 49 in July, up from 46.3 in June. The chief economist mentioned that producers are shrugging off recession fears, but weak activity continues to drag on the economy.
Wednesday: Wednesday: The ADP Employment Change showed solid increases in payrolls at 324k. Annual pay was up +6.2% YoY. The labor market is extremely healthy. Their chief economists expects continued slowdown in pay growth without large losses of jobs. The graphic below reflects the trend that manufacturing activity is down, while services needs cooling.
Thursday: Q2 productivity report came in at +3.7%, beating the expected +1.7% and the prior
-1.2%. Q2 unit labor costs were at 1.6%, compared to an expected 2.7% and a prior 3.3%. The key here is that the pickup in productivity and deceleration in unit labor costs is a great combination for the soft-landing view.
Friday: The employment situation report showed mixed results in nonfarm and private payroll growth, average hourly earnings growth, and unemployment rates. The key was that labor supply continues to be tight, making it hard to moderate wage growth.
All the red this week had the $SPX
close perfectly at the bottom of the ascending channel we have been watching. Ill be interested to see if we bounce or break next week.
Of course there were more items to cover for the week and predictions to make for next week, so check out the full recap and outlook article below!