Big Tech Earnings reactions are negative so far
  • "Meta shares plummet 13% on weak fourth-quarter forecast and earnings miss"
  • "Alphabet just had its worst day since March 2020, shares down 9%"
  • "Microsoft shares sink more than 7% on weak guidance"

Apple and Amazon are up tomorrow, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict the pain continues.

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Prediction:
Validated to: No
$$AAPL$$ will be under$ $144.83$/share on 10/27/2022$
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33 Votes
The Thinking Investor's avatar
Glad to see the the economy slowing down in terms of bringing inflation back to reasonable levels. Brings us closer to the next bull market. Maybe....?
Nathan Worden's avatar
@thethinkinginvestor Really hoping to see inflation move down more in the next print 😬

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Alex's avatar
$AAPL have had a lot of stories around iPhone sales being slow. Could be one of the slowest iPhone launches (relatively speaking).

$AMZN could go one of two ways. Certainly, eCommerce sales have slowed, and tech in general hasn’t done very well so could hurt AWS, so revenue is likely going to be negative. But their earnings could save them if they’ve managed to trim some fat and become more efficient.
Nathan Worden's avatar
@luckylefty_expect7 Of any of the big tech companies, I'd expect Amazon to be the best at tightening the belt.
Alex's avatar
@nathanworden totally. I think they have way more discipline than a lot of the other big tech co’s. Apple have less fat to trim having pivoted to that approach a few years back.
Joshua Simka's avatar
@luckylefty_expect7 I'm thinking along the same lines about this iPhone launch. With inflation what it is and everything else from gas to rent to groceries so expensive, are people going to be so quick to upgrade their iPhones when the one in their pocket works just fine?
Nathan Worden's avatar
$META continues to slide, now down 17%

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Nathan Worden's avatar
@nathanworden make that 18%


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Scoreboard Investor's avatar
What is $AAPL’s typical action around earnings? Could be a good upcoming TikTok 👀
Nathan Worden's avatar
@scorebdinvestor That's a great idea!
Dissecting the Markets's avatar
I think that $AAPL will fall after earnings. The main reason is that demand for iPhones is slowing immensely. The Apple employees say that there's no need for people with the 13 or 12 or 11 to get the 14. Also, Apple should be seeing cooling demand after a huge pandemic sales boom. From my experience, the Apple store at my local mall, while it has consistently been crowded, has seen traffic die down immensely. It has never been easier to speak to an Apple store rep.

Also, I do see management having to emphasize the growing tensions between China and Taiwan as a major reason for why they'll have to spend a lot on changing their supply chains to become less dependent on China.
Dissecting the Markets's avatar
As for $AMZN, I bet that talk over slowing or even declining retail sales will make investors nervous about holding onto Amazon's stock.
Nathan Worden's avatar
@dissectmarkets Now that Apple has already fallen 3% today— do you think that it will fall further once earnings are released?

Also, I intuitively agree that demand for iPhones is slowing— do you happen to have any articles / links / sources showing further evidence of this?
Dissecting the Markets's avatar
@nathanworden I do think $AAPL will fall further during after hours.

As for the demand issue, TechCrunch reported that the company had to adjust their production targets due to slowing demand.

Within the used iPhone market, the iPhone 14 is reported to have lost twice as much value as the iPhone 13. Very bad sign.


Nathan Worden's avatar
@dissectmarkets These are great resources! Thanks so much for sharing!
Alex Biestek's avatar
I agree here. Big tech will most likely continue to take a beating this week but will bounce back by the end of the year. Short term noise !

I may have to keep stacking onto my current $GOOG $MSFT $AMZN and $AAPL positions during these small dips. TBD
Nathan Worden's avatar
@acb123 I might be falling for the 'sentiment follows price trap' but I've definitely been feeling myself get more bearish on big tech recently.

We've been "trained" to buy the dip ever since 2008. Buying the dip has worked every time, so even with the market down this year, there is still a lot of inflows every dip. But the Fed has said they're going to keep hiking interest rates in to next year, and inflation will likely stay higher than it has been for most of the decade. Makes me feel like big tech has a lot of downward pressure through the end of this year.

I'm not normally bearish 😬, and I'm currently still positioned bullish, but just thinking out loud.
Rihard Jarc's avatar
If only $META was -13% 🥲
Nathan Worden's avatar
@rihardjarc funny that if $META was only down -13% by the end of the day that would be a GOOD thing 🥲
Nathan Worden's avatar
Preemptive victory lap— I predicted that Apple would be under $144.83 today and we are currently at $144.72.

A 3% drop is a big move for Apple, so. I don't think this was an "easy" prediction. Let's see if it holds once earnings comes out after the market closes.

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Chip Lunderburg's avatar
Prediction was correct. $AAPL currently at $142.84


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