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Airbnb $ABNB Q1 2023 Earnings Analysis
Revenue: $1.82 billion +20% YoY

Gross Profit: $1.39 billion +21% YoY

Net Income: $117 million vs -$19 million YoY

Nights & Experiences Booked: 121.1 million +19% YoY
  • another quarterly record but growth still slowing sequentially

Gross Booking Value: $20.4 billion +19% YoY

Total Active Listings grew 18% YoY


Free Cash Flow: $1.58 billion +32% YoY
  • Q1 benefits from unearned fees due to seasonailtiy

Trailing Twelve Month FCF is $3.79 billion giving a FCF margin of 44%. This is INCREDIBLE!

Name another companying growing +20% and still generating this much of cash?


Q2 2023 Guidance

Revenue: $2.35-$2.45 billion +12%-16% YoY

Nights & Experiences growth to be lower than revenue growth


Strong quarter from $ABNB

Sell-off after hours due to lower than expected growth in nights & experiences booked which has trended downwards for 4 quarters in a row

This does not impact the long-term thesis in my view, the business continues to grow

Jeff Sanders's avatar
Jeff Sanders
@darthtraderMay 10
Agreed. If anything I’m buying on weakness. They are a cash flow generating machine. The reaction to the guide is madness.
Joey Hirendernath's avatar
Joey Hirendernath
@joeyhirendernathMay 10
A great opportunity, the overaction is unwarranted $ABNB is the verb for short term rentals, I am adding to by position.
Joshua Simka's avatar
Joshua Simka
@tomatoMay 12
What about their pull forward in marketing and ad spend? It makes me wonder what they see in the forecast that management is prioritizing this. I think this was part of the reason behind the stock's drop.

In Q2 2023, we expect Adjusted EBITDA to be similar to Adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2022 on a nominal basis, but lower on a margin basis. This anticipated year-over-year decline in Adjusted EBITDA margin is primarily driven by changes in the expected timing of our marketing spend relative to the prior year. Compared to Q2 2022, we expect that Sales and Marketing expense in Q2 2023 will be approximately 400 basis points higher as a percent of revenue as we deploy marketing earlier in the year than last year. In 2023, we have pulled forward the timing of marketing spend to be more heavily weighted in the first half of the year as compared to 2022. In addition, we are increasing our brand marketing investment in more countries around the world. We believe spending earlier in the year helps to support the peak summer travel season.
Wolf of Harcourt Street's avatar
Wolf of Harcourt Street
@wolfofharcourtMay 12Author
@tomato Q3 is the biggest season for holidaying but why spend advertising during this time when majority of people book their trips in advance ie Q1 or Q2. Perhaps there is something else at play but this is my take
StockOpine's avatar
@stockopineMay 12
@tomato this is not necessarily bad. It is reasonable to pull marketing spend forward to earlier quarters so that they show the right ads to people who haven't booked holidays for the summer period (Q3)
Rihard Jarc's avatar
Rihard Jarc
@rihardjarcMay 12
The conference call is one of the best I listed to in a while. Chesky is a superior CEO. Knows exactly where he is steering the ship, and also his take on AI is aces. Highly recommend people listen to the call.
Wolf of Harcourt Street's avatar
Wolf of Harcourt Street
@wolfofharcourtMay 12Author
@rihardjarc His vision is what stands out for me. He has also shown how adaptable he is in the face of adversity by how he handled Covid and turned the company into a better business in the process
Rihard Jarc's avatar
Rihard Jarc
@rihardjarcMay 19
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