Steve Matt's avatar
$1.2m follower assets
$ABNB Results vs. What I Was Looking For
I posted two days ago what I was looking for in Airbnb's earnings that would keep my thesis on track. They crushed it.

Here's what I wrote two days ago with the bold being my update now.

Here's what I'm looking for this afternoon:

  • Exceed Q1 guidance of $1.445B at the midpoint. They beat their own guidance by 4.4%.
  • GPM >73%. GPM came in at 76% vs 71.3% in Q1 2021.
  • Keep minting FCF. Went from TTM FCF of $2.16B at end of Q4 to $2.88B at end of Q1.
  • Growth of Nights & Experiences Booked (N&EB) >10%. Came in at 58.5% growth.
  • Gross Booking Value (GBV) growth >15%. Came in at 66.8% growth.
  • GBV/N&EB rate >$167. Came in at $168.07.

Jensen Butler's avatar
Killer quarter, yet again. Beast of a company. A bet worth taking in case they continue to grow into an even bigger behemoth in the years to come! Long $ABNB
Steve Matt's avatar
@jensen Very long. I honestly think they could be a trillion dollar company in 10 years.
Django Brooks's avatar
Airbnb is killing it! What is the bear case here? Any downside potential for you?
Steve Matt's avatar
@django_brooks I think a re-emergence of COVID is the only big downside and that would be unlikely to cause new worldwide lockdowns. They’re synonymous with travel now, have no real competitors (sorry VRBO fans), and management has executed flawlessly.
Jeff Sanders's avatar
@interrobangbros Any minor headwind at all with them set to terminate covid refund policy?