Paul Cerro's avatar
$37.8m follower assets
VIX Signaling No Recession?
The most notable times the VIX hit 45 were in 1998, 2002, 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2020. But there’s an issue in how people think that the market needs to blow past 45 to signal the bottom.

So is the VIX broken or our thinking of it? See what I think below. It might surprise you

Chris Miller's avatar
Great read from the inbox this morning. Loved how you dissected the theory. Definitely watching for possible echos and "rhymes"
Paul Cerro's avatar
@cchriscs Appreciate it! Always good to go back and reference other time periods
Dissecting the Markets's avatar
From reading your write-up (it was fantastic btw), I assume we're at the quiet period that's between the collapse of Bear Sterns and before the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Or did I get the wrong message from your article?
Paul Cerro's avatar
@dissectmarkets it seems like it is, but then again, that's assuming more intense will come at a later time. The point was that there technically doesn't HAVE to be a bunch of more bad events to spike VIX and signal a recession. Can still be very low implied vol and be a recession