While declaring that $HD
(who have posted total returns of around 500% over the last decade) are poised to soar in 2023 is far from bold, sometimes it's best not to overthink things.
Meanwhile, saying I like $MMM
feels uncomfortably bold. Facing an unbelievable amount of litigation -- considering it was initially famous for Post-it notes -- the company is being priced for no growth.
Ultimately, I think all three are interesting at today's prices -- here's a short thesis for each:
- Home Depot - X-factor stock with dividend payments up and to the right (534% growth in the L10Y) and shares outstanding down and to the right (31% lower L10Y), with a high and rising ROIC (16% to 42% L10Y). Near 50-50 split between Pro and DIY segments provide stability regardless of the housing environment. Not the worst place to look at 19x earnings.
- 3M - Setting aside litigation surrounding 3M's use of "forever chemicals" and its subsidiary, Aearo's legal issues -- the company has averaged $5B in FCF the last few years. While we wait for these issues to be resolved, 3M will pay a near 5% dividend (which remains easily covered by FCF) and continue to lower its share count (down 20% L10Y). However, at just 13 times operating cash flow, it is trading near its most attractive valuation of the last decade.
- Visa - Not much to say here. X-factor stock like HD with dividends up 445% L10Y and share count down 19% over the same time. With a ROIC of 26%, a small but quickly growing 0.7% dividend, and a network effect to end all network effects, Visa makes for a tremendous steady-Eddie pick at 25x FCF.
Are there any stocks you love or hate from this group?
Or do you have a better Dow pick set to soar?