Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical strategist that you should follow
purely because of his expertise on global demographics and their implications on economics.
In addition to that, he has some great updates on the progress of Covid vaccines.
Here are some quick notes on which vaccines Zeihan is most excited about:
Least excited about. Pfizer doesn't have a lot of experience with vaccines, and it shows; there are hiccups with distribution, testing, and regulatory issues. It's out first, but it requires ultra-cold storage at -70 degrees, requires two shots, and needs to be transported with dry ice, which we are already seeing shortages of in the North East. Pfizer's vaccine is currently in circulation.
Also requires two shots, but Moderna has been in the vaccine business for a while, and has faster distribution. It also only needs to be stored at -20 degrees. Zeihan expects that within six weeks, the number of people who have gotten the Moderna vaccine will triple the amount of people who have gotten the Pfizer vaccine simply because they are a more experienced company. Circulation is starting today.
Oxford / AstraZeneca
In the longer run (about six months or so) Zeihan expects the Oxford vaccine to outsell the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine combined because it is a more traditional manufacturing system that can be produced much faster, and doesn't require freezing, just refrigeration. It is expected to be in circulation by February 1st.
Johnson and Johnson
Zeihan is most excited about this one because it is a single shot, and it doesn't require refrigeration. Should be in circulation by early March.
Zeihan said for those mutations to cause a problem they would have to be really extreme, and there would need to be not just one, but thousands of different mutations.
The main area to focus on is the spike protein
, which is the part of the coronavirus that bonds with your cells in order to infect them.
All four of the vaccines are designed to target the spike protein.
For the spike protein to change sufficiently such that the vaccine can't stop it, the virus would probably also have to change so much that it couldn't infect us in the first place.
So far there isn't any indication that the coronavirus mutations have changed it enough such that the vaccines can't be effective.