When you all see this, do you care, or it's something that really matters to certain investors?
It's a good data point— was chatting with @youngmoneycapital about how there are certain investors that it can be unsettling to be on the opposite side of a trade on.
That being said, @strib has a good point about how there isn't enough information about what 'the trade' actually is here. The quote "clearly you don't want to own bonds or stocks" doesn't provide enough clarity about what Paul Tudor Jones is actually doing. This is why we need Commonstock! Is Paul Tudor Jones in all cash? Mostly cash? More cash than normal? Allocation sizes matter.
Yes this is generally bearish, but without more specifics about what Paul Tudor Jones is actually doing... I don't see much of an action item here.
I can’t say I disagree with him. That said, I always ask myself “so what?”. What I mean by that is, sure todays backdrop maybe tough but is that going to spook me out of the market? For me, no. I’ll wait it out and continue to add where I can and it will get better eventually. I’d also look at what he is doing.. I didn’t see anywhere in the article where he stated he is selling out of the market. So, it’s more or less just an anecdotal comment or complaint.
Long story short. No, not gonna let it spook me out of the market. I think it would be a bit late for that at this point anyway.
Tudor Jones sticking to his roots:
“If there was a strategy that I would want to employ right now, if someone put a gun to my head, I’d say simple trend-following strategies,” Jones said. “They are not too popular today. ... They will probably do very well in the next five to 10 years.”
Read Market Wizards he’s an extremely aggressive investor/trader and can change his mind on a dime.
@strib follow what’s going up.
Don’t try catch bottoms or tops. Catch it somewhere after you’re sure it’s going up (or down I guess but usually up) get on board and hold it as long as the trend continues. CANSLIM is trend following. A lot of famous traders are trend followers. Eg. Richard Dennis, Tudor Jones, O’Neill
@strib of course, it’s usually very rules based style. Really cool book called Turtle Traders by Michael Covel. It’s about a time where Richard Dennis picked 23 people with no stock market background at random them and turned them into Millionaires teaching them a trend following system. Apparently to prove it could be done.
This is exactly why I don’t consume any typical investment reading. No talking heads for me. Macro economic situations have always, and will always, be part of investing. I don’t let noise interrupt me buying into great businesses. And sure, there are better and worse times to get in the market, depending on the price you pay. But this type of hyperbole is what drives the panic selling even further when those who lack confidence in their own knowledge/ability, read, but more importantly believe, shit like this. Painting stocks with such a broad brush is ignorant too. Regardless of the environment, there are always opportunities. A bad market is the mother of all opportunities!!! Everything is on sale. When talking heads like him are spreading panic, and everyone is selling, is when I’m buying the most aggressively. I usually laugh when I see headlines like this because I know the lemmings are following him right off a cliff. But I’ll always be here, buying my favorite stocks from them, while they’re panicking, selling stocks while at their most attractive valuations in years.
As @django_brooks said, horizon matters. My horizon is 10+years, minimum. I couldn't care less about headlines like that article. Literal yawn for me.
And unless one is selling 100% of their portfolio the DAY they retire, I’m still not worried, even with a shorter horizon. IMO, if you think America is going to be a country, then you should be okay with your money in the markets. They have recovered 100% of the corrections, recessions, depressions, wars, etc. of the past🤷♂️