Good morning contrarians! Stock futures are flat after Target ($TGT) reports earnings that beat on top- and bottom-line estimates but cautions on outlook…

Target earnings aside, it’s a good day to observe what the market does with little in the way of new information. This could give us an idea of the prevailing mood. It certainly doesn’t look good, but this last year has several incidents of things turning around quite suddenly and with no apparent catalyst.

Just how dominant is this ‘higher for longer’ narrative that we’ve seen emerge these last weeks? Is it entrenched yet? The next Fed meeting is still three weeks out (March 22) and futures are still pricing in a 75% chance of a 25bps rate hike. That speaks to a certain level of stubbornness, perhaps disbelief by investors. We’ll have to watch what Fed speakers say. That could puncture whatever denial is left here. (There don’t appear to be any on the calendar today however.)

More in today’s briefing and podcast, available here for premium subscribers: