Steve Matt's avatar
$1.2m follower assets
$DDOG $MELI $SHOP Earnings: What I'm Looking For
Datadog, Inc. ($DDOG) - Reporting earnings tomorrow (5/5) morning
You want a company that trades at high multiples? Can I interest you in P/S of 36.8 and a forward P/S of 18? How about a P/FCF of 151?

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • Beat revenue guidance and raise full year guidance.
  • GPM >80% for the first time ever in a quarter would be neato.
  • As I noted the other day, their SG&A as a percent of revenue has decreased every year since 2017 while their R&D as a percent of revenue has increased every year since 2017. I love this. Keep this trend going. Build an incredible product and it will begin to sell itself.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 32nd highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 0.41 years
Number of purchases since: 1
Annualized return: (45.6%)
Annualized $SPY return: (10.6%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (27.7%)


Shopify Inc. ($SHOP) - Reporting earnings tomorrow (5/5) morning
Shopify is talked about to death.

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • I'll peruse the financials but I won't be looking but more listening. Listening to management's comments, that is. I feel like the conference call has just as good a chance of moving the stock in Thursday's session as the financials do.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 72nd highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 0.41 years
Number of purchases since: 1
Annualized return: 42.0%
Annualized $SPY return: 12.0%
Annualized $QQQ return: 18.9%


MercadoLibre, Inc. ($MELI) - Reporting earnings tomorrow (5/5) afternoon
One of my highest conviction positions. They do it all and they do it incredibly well.

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • Can they sustain the revenue growth they've seen since COVID began (73% in 2020 and 78% in 2021)?
  • Can they bring margins back up (59% in 2017 vs 42.5% in 2021)?
  • FCF plummeted as capex more than doubled in 2021. I'm not against it. Fulfillment services is a key cog in the wheel. Just curious to see if that trend continues in 2022. I would imagine it does.
  • In terms of specific KPIs, I'd like to see growth of unique active users by >50%, gross merchandise volume by >33%, and total payment volume by >45%.
  • Watching total payment transactions via MercadoPago closely as well.
  • Will management comment on Shopee (Sea Limited $SE) becoming authorized to operate as payment institution in Brazil?

Current position:
Total cost basis: The highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 5.06 years
Number of purchases since: 6
Annualized return: 27.3%
Annualized $SPY return: 11.1%
Annualized $QQQ return: 15.3%
Stock Metal Investment's avatar
Good list for $MELI. I'm also looking at Envios. Will network penetration continue to rise? Can we get over 90%?
ThomasFJE's avatar
Good points!

Author

Related