Stocks continued their push higher today as investors read the FOMC minutes for clues of the pace of near-term rate hikes.
Key FOMC takeaways are that the rate peak may be higher than expected and that a number of officials support a slowing pace of hikes moving forward as lagging indicators become clearer.
There’s a ton of economic releases today starting with initial jobless claims. Claims came in higher than expected at 240,000 for the week ending Nov. 19, bringing the 4-week average to 226,750. Continuing claims were also higher at 1,551,000, bringing the 4-week average to 1,509,750.
The advance report on durable goods came in better than expected with a 1.0% increase in Oct, up from a 0.3% increase last month. Transportation equipment, up 6 of the last 7 months, led the increase rising 2.1% MoM. Core durable goods orders, which excludes transportation, increased 0.5%.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey reported that consumer sentiment fell to 56.8 in Nov from 59.9. The decline offsets about 1/3 of the gains posted since the historic low in June. In addition to the continued concern over inflation, consumers are becoming more concerned over rising borrowing costs, declining asset values, and weakening labor market expectations.
The Flash U.S. S&P Global Composite PMI fell 1.9 points to 46.3 in Nov. The report said, “the rate of contraction signaled was the sharpest since August and among the quickest since 2009.” The Flash Manufacturing PMI fell 3.5 points to 47.2, a 30-month low, and the Services PMI was down 1.7 points to 46.1, a 3-month low.
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported applications increased 2.2% last week. The Refinance and Purchases Indexes increased 2% and 3%, respectively. The average contract interest rate for a 30-year conforming loan decreased 23 bps to 6.67%.
New home sales came in at 632,000 in Oct, a 7.5% increase MoM but 5.8% lower YoY. The estimate of new homes for sale stood at 470,000, a supply of 8.9 months at the current sales rate.
Markets are closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving Day. Enjoy your holiday and stay safe!