"As we approach the end of 2023, the scorecard for the past two years is a mixed bag. While Comcast and (especially) Charter have done a good job on wireless, they’ve faced real pressure of late in broadband. For example, Comcast’s Q4 FY23 guidance suggests that they’ll end the year with ~32.2 million broadband customers – down 0.3% from YE FY22; on broadband penetration, that implies a rate that’s ~100 basis points lower than yearend FY21. As opposed to the mid-single digit volume growth reported from 2011 to 2021, the question has quickly become whether Comcast can grow core broadband customers at all (excluding gains from RDOF and the like.)

Directionally, the story is similar at Charter. While their management team has slightly differing views on the balance between volumes and rates (ARPU’s) in broadband, they are also facing headwinds: it now looks like they will fall well short of their FY23 goal of surpassing FY22’s +344k broadband net adds. While ~1% customer growth for FY23e is ahead of a comparable -0.3% decline at Comcast, Charter is also making some financial sacrifices to deliver that result; whether that trade-off is worthwhile is an open question."