Neil's avatar
$18m follower assets
Worth the risk or not?
The $68 billion acquisition is expected to close a year, yet the market still does not fully believe the deal will go through.

$ATVI stock price is 20% lower than the acquisition one ($95) that $MSFT has offered.

Arbitrage opportunity or not worth it?

I don't know...
Oliver's avatar
Sorry but am I reading this correctly that if I bought activision stock today and the deal goes through as expected, Microsoft would buy my shares approximately +20% higher?
Luka 🦉's avatar
@odysseus yes correct. If the deal fail, probably, stock will sink
Neil's avatar
@odysseus Yup.. and if it fails it will probably come down 20-25% (depending on the market environment)
Luka 🦉's avatar
I consider it a quite safe arbitrage.
Sachiv's avatar
Defn yes. I think you’ll get an idea of the chances we’ll within 6 months either way.
StockOpine's avatar
@paulcerro has outlined this trade.
Neil's avatar
@paulcerro Thanks, well written Paul!
StockOpine's avatar
If you like $ATVI as a stand-alone investment at its current valuation then it worths the risk.
Alex Biestek's avatar
If you can afford the risk associated with it, then I'd say send it.
Benjamin Buchanan's avatar
I had an $ATVI position before the announcement, and given that I do like their business long term I was willing to hold it for the arbitrage opp even though that's not an investment thesis I would ever have pro-actively moved on. That said, I've sold it now because of the drop in certain tech giants and semis - which I believe have similar upside and I'm willing to hold them forever - and I always prioritize positions that I think could be held long term.
Wall St is greedy and big money is privy to “valuable” information. If this is very “buyable” as in easy money, I’m very skeptical.

Wall St has never made it so it was easy to make money; they will rip the heart and soul out before they pay up.