Bought ROKU $400 Calls
BULLISH
2/18/2022 Exp, Opening
11/02/2021
2 Comments
1 Upvote
People should not copy me on this one. Roku earnings are tomorrow and I’m playing with house money. Roku keeps beating earnings and so I’m speculating that they do so again. But they’ve also been spending more on marketing this last quarter which is a bit new for them, and so we’re not sure how effective the extra spending will be. Could turn out poorly. You never know. I believe Roku is oversold in general, but buying options right before earnings is a true gamble. Buyer beware :)
sam stribling's avatar
@nathanworden we are gonna have fun with these!

P.S. how did you link your options trade? I have my accounts synced but under trades I only see my stock trades.
Olympia's avatar
@strib we only support options for certain brokers at the moment, so yours is likely not supported yet. we're building out more options support for additional brokers soon so stay tuned :)
sam stribling's avatar
@olympia no rush! I just have the same ones as @nathanworden and was gonna share them!

Everyone just take my word for it until I can prove it lol I got 2 contracts. C’mon $ROKU show us what you got tomorrow! Market gods show Nathan some love on his first options play!!
Olympia's avatar
@strib when i said soon, i meant real soon. check your profile ;) more support to come!!
sam stribling's avatar
@olympia I saw it this morning! Fast work!
Joey Hirendernath's avatar
I love the aesthetic of this linked option trade
Greg's avatar
for someone who has purchased fake internet meme money.. I don't understand what you mean by buyer beware. HAHahaha! Thank you for the roku info, Curious to see how it pans out. :-)
Nathan Worden's avatar
😂 Great point Greg! 😄 Risk is all relative. Happy to help— will let you know how it pans out, win or lose 😃

sam stribling's avatar
@nathanworden these are gonna hurt tomorrow but at least we bought time! This is bullshit to me frankly.. they posted $0.48 vs a $0.06 estimate on EPS.. you’d think an 800% beat would be good enough but apparently not. Sales were down a bit due to supply chain so it is what it is I guess
Nathan Worden's avatar
@strib yep, that’s why we bought it with an execution date of Feb. 2022. Buying right before earnings is always a gamble, now it’s a waiting game.
Christopher Seifel's avatar
Price action has nothing to do with Q3 results. All on the light guide that missed badly.

Think Roku is still a winner given their superior ad tech but expect ST pain on account acquisition side - which is what the street will focus on.

ARPU tells the story, but have to understand what the market cares about.
Nathan Worden's avatar
@strib ^ The Street cares about account acquisition and light guidance.

We care more about ARPU and how effective Roku’s as tech can be.

I still like the spot I’m in.
sam stribling's avatar
@nathanworden yeah I saw the account acquisition feedback. I think its when you have stocks that are performing like a $ROKU it’s priced to perfection. So, anything less than “market defined” perfect is tough to hit. I’m actually not worried about user growth this quarter. I’ve been watching $ROKU forever and Q3 is always light bc it’s right before the holidays / Black Friday / cyber Monday / Christmas etc etc. so light guidance should be easy to beat. This also goes back to what I was saying about Anthony Wood on our call. Love the guy he is great. He is just a better operator than a salesman
Hey Nathan, that is a +3Months and therefore pretty expensive call. Not questioning your decision but if your main driver was the Quarterly results why pay the additional premium?
Nathan Worden's avatar
@alexb great question-

I’m pretty bullish on Roku in general, and I know earnings can be a crapshoot, so from the beginning, the long date was to give two cracks at coming out ahead. One for earnings, and if that didn’t turn out well, then to give it a chance to recover with a strong end to the year.
Nathan Worden's avatar
@alexb probably should have split those two bets into two different calls. Is that what you would have done?
@nathanworden probably not, as timing things just right is obviously very difficult so you are building margin for error. That said if we try to be disciplined in our investment decisions it’s good to keep it “clean”. Kinda reminds of the idea that if you give too many reasons to justify a decision then something is off. If you have a good reason then you don’t need additional ones. Now I just have to practice what o preached :)
Nathan Worden's avatar
@alexb great points, investing is all about being thoughtful beforehand and disciplined along the way.

I’ll keep you updated on how this one goes 🙂
@nathanworden probably not, as timing things just right is obviously very difficult so you are building margin for error. That said if we try to be disciplined in our investment decisions it’s good to keep it “clean”. Kinda reminds of the idea that if you give too many reasons to justify a decision then something is off. If you have a good reason then you don’t need additional ones. Now I just have to practice what I preached :)
Nathan Worden's avatar
Update: The Roku calls are down 80% since I bought them.

In the interest of being transparent, wanted to give an update on how things were going— bad! @crispygoat @alexb @strib

Options are risky!

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sam stribling's avatar
@nathanworden yep.. I feel ya. I’m 😵 too
Nathan Worden's avatar
Life comes at you fast 😄

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