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FED has in 40 years never cut rates when...
- CPI was above 3%
and the
- unemployment rate below 4%
Unemployment Rate & CPI:
U.S. interest rates 1y 2y 3y 5y 10y 30y with a 20-year lookback period:
- 3 hiking cycles in 20 years: not the 1st one nor the last one I tell you that
- currently above the 2015-2019 period, though below the 2004-2009 cycle with the exception of the very short end of the curve which is above
- peak interest rates aka ‘peak FED’ should be around here rather sooner than later
Thoughts?
Mav
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