Jennifer's avatar
$25.9m follower assets
Ecuador: The Winds of Change
2022 was a banner year for mining in Ecuador, as President Lasso attempted to work across the board with Indigenous groups, environmental protestors, and the mining industry.
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_The value of Ecuador’s mining exports grew 32.6% in 2022 from the year before, reaching $2.78 billion after its two large-scale mines operated at full capacity, the country’s energy and mines ministry said.
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The Andean nation has abundant mineral reserves, but has lagged regional neighbors like Peru and Chile in large-scale mining development due to opposition from indigenous communities and court rulings that have halted project progress.

Ecuador’s mining exports in 2021 were valued at $2.09 billion, according to official data. Mining accounts for the country’s fourth most exported products, behind oil, shrimp and bananas.

With several new mining projects coming online over the next two years, including Australian SolGold’s Cascabel concession, the government hopes to bring in another $4 billion in mining exports by 2025.
The main destinations for Ecuador’s mining exports are China, the United States and Switzerland, according to the ministry’s statement.

Yesterday's Reuters headline caused me some concern about the outlook for my "Ecuador Triple Play" of $ADZN.V $LUM.V & $LR.V. - whether or not $ADZN.V was down 10% due to the general market selloff or due to concern about potential instability in Ecuador was difficult to tell. It's worth noting yesterday evening's follow-up headline regarding Lasso's potential innocence. Whatever the cause of the drop in Adventus' share price, investors were likely given a wonderful opportunity to buy the dip.

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QUITO, March 14 (Reuters) - Ecuador's national assembly on Tuesday voted to declassify documents tied to investigations into allegations of corruption at public companies, in a bid to shore up impeachment charges against President Guillermo Lasso.

Earlier this month a majority of lawmakers in the assembly, whose members have repeatedly clashed with conservative Lasso, backed a report accusing him of connections to possible crimes against state security and public administration, assertions rejected by the government.

The government made no immediate comment, but has said previously the report's findings are based on coincidences and conjecture.

Lasso has denied corruption accusations and said his government will cooperate fully with the investigations by the attorney general's office.

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QUITO, March 15 (Reuters) - Ecuador President Guillermo Lasso and his family members do not appear in declassified documents released by the country's companies regulator, the agency said on Wednesday, referring to files which opposition lawmakers had sought to shore up a possible impeachment bid.

Legislators voted on Tuesday to declassify the files, after earlier this month backing a report accusing Lasso of connections to possible crimes against state security and public administration.

Lasso has denied corruption allegations and said his government will fully cooperate with ongoing investigations by the attorney general into alleged graft at state companies.

"If what you want to know is whether the name of the president or any relative is on the list ... they really were not found on any of the lists," companies superintendent Marco Lopez told local television.
Some lawmakers have alleged that Albanian businesses operating in Ecuador could have criminal connections, but Lopez said that though the regulator is analyzing whether the presence of Albanian citizens represents any risk, he cannot be sure any crimes have been committed.

Though the assembly backed the nonbinding report accusing Lasso of wrongdoing, the opposition is still examining which charges it wants to bring against him and has not yet formally requested impeachment hearings.

"There is not one single clue or document that involved Mr. Guillermo Lasso in what was just declassified from the Superintendency of Companies," Pachakutik party legislator Ricardo Vanegas told journalists. "What value could a trial have if there is no connection."

"They are looking for ways to tie this soap opera to a reason to remove President Lasso," he said.
Opposition politicians were unperturbed.

"The only truth is that we have a drug trafficking government that is protecting mobsters and which allowed a criminal structure to install itself in public companies," said lawmaker Viviana Veloz, a member of the political party of former President Rafael Correa. "They want to keep Guillermo Lasso as president."
Impeachment hearings, which need the votes of 92 legislators to proceed, could result in the censure or removal of Lasso, who has served for nearly two years.

The legislature has also voted to declassify presidential visitors logs, which are being digitized and are not yet public.

For now it seems Lasso is safe but in LatAm the political winds can change quickly. I will be watching for developments on the situation and posting on CommonStock & Twitter. In the end, hopefully Ecuadorians will see some of the benefits they've gained from the mining sector and an improvement in their standard of living, then will vote accordingly in the next election.

My original post on the Ecuador Triple Play (still holding all three) please DYODD - junior mining is a very high-risk sector:
Joey Hirendernath's avatar
This post to me is an excellent example of investors staying informed with regard to political developments in a sector. It's so important for investors to have patience and discipline to understand the risks involved in junior mining. @jennymanydots thanks for keeping us abreast of the news with your expertise.
Jennifer's avatar
@joeyhirendernath Thank you Joey, I was fortunate to speak with management at the Adventus PDAC booth and he informed me of the best Ecuadorian news sources to monitor for developments. Thank goodness for Google Translate!
Todor Kostov's avatar
@jennymanydots Thanks for sharing, Jen.
Jennifer's avatar
@kostofff You're welcome, have a great weekend!
Nathan Worden's avatar
Lots of geopolitical considerations when investing in Ecuador!
Jennifer's avatar
@nathanworden Latin American politics are so unpredictable compared to North American! It's very important investors stay on top of any political developments there, particularly with most countries voting for candidates that campaign on higher taxes and tougher regulations for the mining industry.

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