Memos are Puzzle Pieces
I have been chatting with Pat Connolly ( @pat_connolly) about some research he has been doing on a company that offers a luxury treatment only available to those willing to shell out thousands of dollars.

The company requires an in-person consultation in order to reveal the price of their machines. In order for Pat to round-out his investment thesis, he needs a little more information that is purposely withheld by the company.

So he is kind of at a dead end.

But the work he has done so far shouldn't just die there.

I was talking yesterday about Commonstock's unique opportunity and the advantage that networks of people have over institutions.

As the Commonstock community grows, it becomes more likely that someone on here has first-hand experience with the treatment Pat is looking into.

A lot of people are intimidated by writing memos, because it seems like they need to be these polished, fully finished pieces of work.

But I don't see it that way at all.

A memo is like a puzzle piece, where other people in the Commonstock network might have the other puzzle pieces you are looking for, and we help each other put the pieces together.

As long as you write down the research you've already done and your thoughts, then you are providing value to the network even if it's not a fully finished product.

If you're doing some research right now and you're a bit stuck, I highly encourage you to post a memo about it and see who else out there might have some special experience to help you out.

Also, go check out Pat's memo and see if you can help lend him a hand! He's also just looking for discussion to poke holes in his thesis.

Check out his memo HERE.

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Rachel Wolitzky's avatar
I am OBSESSED with this
Nathan Worden's avatar
Glad you agree 🤗
Rachel Wolitzky's avatar
ps how do you do the click HERE for his memo thing? (Also at least for me on mobile link doesn’t work).
Nathan Worden's avatar
When I'm writing a memo (which I always do on desktop, not mobile) there is a tool down at the bottom that looks like a chain. You can highlight text, then click the little chain link button and insert a link for it to go to when you click the text.
Ambrose's avatar
I wouldn't hop on so quickly, the clinical study for efficacy has not been confirmed.

I'm always skeptical about these kinds of products. Because it is loosely regulated, they can get always with minimal efficacy.
But they have a history of working products and the technology seems legit.

However, if their products work so well. Why their revenue growth decrease year over year and only maintain a +50mil revenue per year since.

That's because the non-invasive aesthetic treatment market size was valued at USD 4.6 billion in 2020

The bullish scenario is that they get 10% of the market share. So 460mil. That means with the current 200mil revenue. They can only effectively grow their company +130% before tailing the 13% CAGR of the industry. Can someone confirm whether I am looking at the right TAM?

In conclusion, this is at most a decent company. If you like to support leading-edge aesthetic treatment, you can invest in it.
Nathan Worden's avatar
Killer analysis @zebo, you rock. Thanks for the insights and the links. That's a great idea to be checking clinicaltrials.gov

Where did you find the number of $4.6 billion for the non-invasive aesthetic treatment market size? I like your approach of looking at that and then working backwards to estimate how much of the market InMode could take and therefore also the implied growth rate.
Nathan Worden's avatar
haha nice- Ok so as far as if InMode would fall into this TAM, I am not an expert on the non-invasive aesthetic treatment market, but I think it would fit in here. So I think your assumptions hold. We could always get debunked later by someone with more experience in this area, but I'd be comfortable accepting your conclusions that InMode is a decent company, but not groundbreaking.

I'm not super enamored by the aesthetic treatment market in general, so I'd probably pass on this one.

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