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@kaushiks
Kaushik
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$NFLX Stifel Upgrades to Buy, 'Every Ending Is A New Beginning
“We are upgrading shares of Netflix to Buy. With signs of stabilization in the subscriber base emerging, we believe the prospect of a prolonged period of subscriber losses is becoming increasingly unlikely. Investor focus can now appropriately shift to the viability of Netflix’s growth initiatives, including monetizing password sharing and the introduction of ad-supported tiers, both of which will be introduced next year. To reinvigorate growth, Netflix will need to solve its affordability issues in emerging markets and increase monetization in relatively mature markets. The company has a number of increasingly defined levers to solve these issues, with a proven management team and improving FCF dynamics. We see numerous potential catalysts over a multi-year period as management realigns the business for its next phase of growth. With shares trading after hours for 22.6x 2022E EPS, we believe valuation is compelling for a dominant business with considerable optionality ahead." PT Raised to $250

$DDOG Bernstein Starts at Outperform, Top Pick PT $172
“We are bullish on Datadog for its rapidly expanding TAM, a Product Led Growth ("PLG") commercial model and large secular tailwinds. As Datadog's customer base re-accelerated IT cloud migration and new application deployment projects that had been delayed during COVID, we expect its revenue to follow suit. Pre-COVID growth rates were solidly above 80% YoY, and the last couple quarters saw these rates reemerge, even at >$1B TTM revenue. The management continues to guide aggressively (56% YoY growth FY22 vs. FY21). However, we believe the guidance is quite cautious in the absence of an externality (i.e. a real recession), and find it credible that they will remain above 70% YoY revenue growth for FY22, and above 50% YoY through FY24. We see them tailing to "just" mid-40% range by FY25 at a $6B+ revenue scale with significant forward visibility to continued growth as they enable two of the largest secular mega-trends ("Software eating the world" and "Migration to Cloud-first IT infrastructure"). Our revenue estimates are 9% above consensus in FY2022E and ~50% above consensus in FY2025E. In addition, we also expect NonGAAP OP Profit to be 39% above consensus in FY2022E and gradually increase to 140% above consensus by FY2025E. However, the story is not without current macro uncertainties. As demonstrated during COVID, the secular trends that Datadog benefits from saw severe headwinds during a market disruption. The impact was most acutely felt in expansion of the existing base, but not materially in new customer adoption. We estimate in the worst case scenario ('08-09 as a comparison), we might see as much as 2/3+ drop in revenue growth for ~1 year, before it re-accelerates and some customers actually catch up on missed spend driving growth above the expected trend line. The impact lopps $0.6B off the 2025 revenue estimates, leaving us still ~34% above current FY2025E consensus."

SMid-Cap indices are already pricing in a mild recession, but they will have to fall ~30% from here should the next recession mimic the last three - JPM
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Bull Market Total Returns and Recession-linked Downturns of S&P 500 - 1932 to Date - JPM
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In the second quarter, we produced over 258,000 vehicles and delivered over 254,000 vehicles, despite ongoing supply chain challenges and factory shutdowns beyond our control. June 2022 was the highest vehicle production month in Tesla’s history
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$AMD Northland Capital Upgrades to Outperform
“We are upgrading AMD to OP. We are also reducing estimates to account for a global recession by cutting $2.8B out of our CY23 forecast. We trimmed our estimates for PC CPUs, GPUs, XLNX, and gaming consoles. We left our server revenue unchanged, but have growth decelerating to 55% y/y in CY23 down from 78% in CY22. We trim our PT to $95 and raise our rating to OP. We believe that the world is heading into a global recession, and in general, semiconductor companies' estimates are too high. We scrubbed our AMD numbers and lower our CY23 estimates to comprehend a global economic slowdown that will likely impact PC CPUs, GPUs, game consoles, and XLNX. AMD in servers CPUs is at the top of the stack next year we believe AMD will see little impact on this business in CY23. We estimate that AMD's PC CPU revenue will decline 6% next year, and GPU revenue will decline 7%. Combined we are modeling CPU and GPU revenue to decline by $675M Y/Y. We are modeling XLNX revenue to decline 6% on an apples-to-apples comparison, but AMD acquired XLNX in the middle of Q1 and we estimate AMD's XLINX revenue will increase by $250M in 2023. We estimate game console revenue in CY23 will be up 8% or $400M, but we reduce our CY23 estimate by $740M. We estimate enterprise revenue will grow 55% or by $3.1B. We believe these estimates are a low bar for the Company."

Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson Says Bear Market Isn't Over, Sell Into Strength Ahead of Earnings Revisions
"Morgan Stanley chief equity strategist Mike Wilson, hosted a podcast noting that the recent market rally can be attributed to the pullback in oil prices and interest rates. However, the bear market is unlikely to be over since we are about to enter an earnings season where downward revisions will be the norm and the possibility for recession remains high. In our view both the fall in oil and rates are driven more by fears of an economic slowdown than a real peak in inflation which would lead to a more dovish Fed. However with markets so oversold and bearishness pervasive, equity investors have taken the bullish view and rerates stocks higher. Even taking into account the fallen 10 year yields, the equity risk premium is back below 3%, in our view that makes little sense in the context of the likely negative earnings revisions coming in the second quarter reporting season and he rising risk of recession over the next 6 to 12 months. We suggest using equity market strength over the next few weeks to lighten up further on portfolios."

I wonder how often chief equity strategist are right about their predictions. I’d bet it’s somewhere between monkey with a dart board and never
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