@jlinder

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Economy Dashboard
Been messing around a little bit in Google Sheets and tried to make an "Economy Dashboard". I wanted to make something where I can take in a bunch of information that comes from a lot of different sources (and also updates in real time - or when economic reports release). Still a work in progress, but wanted to share :)
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Data Used: Real GDP, Inflation Rate, Unemployment Rate, Home Price Index, Price of Electricity, Treasury Rates, Corporate Bond Yields
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Economic Reports for 6/27-7/1
  • Monday → Pending home sales index
  • Tuesday → US home price index
  • Wednesday → GDP revision for Q1
  • Thursday → PCE inflation, Real disposable income, Jobless claims
  • Friday → Manufacturing index, Construction spending

Any you are keeping track of?
Writing During Times of Panic - (Written on 6/26/22)
At twenty-two years old, it is difficult for me to fully reflect on the financial markets right now. Everything just seems to be worsening and I cannot help but look back to 2008. I was not knowledgeable enough, or old enough, to realize the implications of what occurred during the Great Recession. However, I vividly remember the times when my father said that the financial markets in 2008 made him fearful for his investments and his job. Fast-forward to now and we another recession potentially on the brink. All of this while still dealing with the repercussions from the COVID recession.
When reading the news now, economic and financial indicators constantly flip through in my head: inflation, consumer sentiment, real estate prices, stock market performance, supply chain efficiency, oil prices, along with others. I cannot help but think that the US economy will soon “face the music”. With that being said, it is becoming increasingly difficult to write about the world of finance with this all going on. Since starting Money Buzz (my newsletter), I have written many times about some of these indicators. This culminates into a grand learning experience that I am appreciative of, but then I see a Tweet like the one below.

How can Jim Cramer remain calm during times of panic? Who knows, but I know when to stop being optimistic (and maybe that I am wrong in this). Through experiences like these, no matter how small, they teach me something. Which is to think to yourself when taking in any information. Writing right now continues to be difficult, but this is all about learning, improving, and becoming a better person in the end.
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It's easy to remain calm through the panic when you've invested through previous recessions and market crashes, assuming that you still have a job and cash flow coming in.
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Which macro/economic data are you most paying attention to over the next 12 months?

My Shortlist:
  • Inflation
  • Consumer Sentiment
  • Interest/Treasury Rates
  • Energy Prices
  • Real Estate Prices
unemployment for me.. if these companies start panicking like Netflix and JPM just did this week, we are in trouble cause the tailspin will stunt the job growth
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Correlation between yearly IPOs and S&P 500's annual performance?
Are the number of yearly IPOs correlated with the S&P 500's annual performance? Ehhhh, not really with a R^2 value of 0.075. My brain thought of looking at this potential correlation at 2am, so here we are! I originally thought that ~maybe~ with more companies going public, then the overall markets would become more optimistic. Thus, increasing the S&P 500's annual return.
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My gut reaction would that IPOs are leading indicator in potential forth in the market, and that any % returns analysis would have to be undertaken years after, in hindsight.
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Investor Fantasy Draft
There is a “fantasy draft” to pick the best investor for your asset/wealth management fund. Which investor are you selecting with the #1 pick?
62%Warren Buffett
12%George Soros
12%Cathie Woods
12%Other - reply with choice
24 VotesPoll ended on: 06/24/22
The Strength of the US Dollar
When the Federal Reserve decides to increase interest rates, they are driving demand for the US Dollar (USD). Simply put, this is because investors will want to purchase US Government bonds. As seen from the picture below, the yield of 10-Year Notes continues to increase over the past three months. Through all of this, it appreciates the dollar and makes it a stronger currency versus other currencies (Example: Euro).

So Jakob… what does any of this mean to me? Well, I am glad you asked! With the dollar appreciated, it is making domestic goods/services more expensive while making foreign goods/services less expensive. Thus, decreasing US exports and increasing imports. However, the dollar’s strength may fall in the near to long-term future. With inflation where it currently is, the US economy may soon be at a standstill. In the meantime, we must await word from the Federal Reserve on how to hope to curb inflation.

Like what you read? Check out my latest newsletter post about the USD's strength, the safety of EV's autopilot, and the new MacBook Air!

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Zoom ($ZM) Q1 Earnings + Cathie Wood
After Zoom beats its earnings for last quarter, its stock rose by 18%. It is crazy to think that Zoom’s share price hovered over $500 during the pandemic and it now sits at around $100. Even with the earnings beat, I do not really foresee Zoom reaching anywhere near $500 anytime soon. Although, Cathie Wood (CEO of ARK Invest) just purchased 19,000 shares of Zoom over the past week. There is no explanation for this purchase yet, but Zoom is now ARK Invest’s top investment in its portfolio. Considering how bullish Cathie Wood is on Tesla, this is an interesting move to keep track of.

Sources:

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