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@iangray
Ian Gray
$25.3M follower assets
Dream - Challenge - Reflect Dreaming big opens our eyes to new possibilities Challenging our ideas through research, counterarguments, and strict scrutiny increases our rate of success Reflecting on our mistakes and victories makes us smarter investors
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Applied Materials $AMAT Podcast
We talked Applied Materials $AMAT on Chit Chat Money this week.

They play a vital role in the semiconductor industry by providing machinery used in the manufacturing process.

It’s going on my watchlist.

Does anybody own $AMAT?


Spotify
Applied Materials (AMAT) | Not So Deep Dive
Listen to this episode from Chit Chat Stocks on Spotify. Applied Materials provides manufacturing equipment, services, and software to the semiconductor industry. The company sells primarily to chip manufacturers and display companies. Listen closely as Ian, Brett, and Ryan go through the history, financials, and future prospects of Applied Materials. Enjoy the show! This episode is sponsored by Commonstock, a social network for smart money investors. Check-out the platform here: https://commonstock.com/ Want updates on future shows and projects? Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/chitchatmoney Subscribe to 7investing with the code "CCM" and get $10 off: https://7investing.com/subscribe/aff/4/ Interested in more of Ian's work? Follow him on Twitter: https://twitter.com/IanGrayLive  Contact us: chitchatmoneypodcast@gmail.com Timestamps Company Background | (3:43) Industry | (8:43) Management & Ownership | (11:06) Valuation | (12:59) Earnings | (16:36) Balance Sheet | (19:10) Our Analysis | (22:19) Disclosure: Chit Chat Money hosts and guests are not financial advisors, and nothing they say on this show is formal advice or a recommendation. Brett Schafer and Ryan Henderson are general partners and portfolio managers at Arch Capital. Arch Capital and its partners may hold securities discussed on this show. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

I will need to listen to this.

Own a tiny position in $AMAT thanks to its growing dividend, low payout ratio, and having heard it mentioned by The Motley Fool.

I am looking forward to learning more about it here.
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Ended up ~doubling my $ZM position yesterday. It is mind boggling to me that I was able to double my position for approx. the same cost basis as my pre-COVID position.

~4% FCF yield

I think the competition will be steep for $ZM from the likes of $GOOG $FB $MSFT $AAPL $CRM, but ~10% 5y FCF CAGR seems like a fair possibility. If that does occur, I expect to be very happy with the return.

Conviction pays! I choose to stay away from this one bc I think as a whole, barrier to entry for the telecommunication video play isn’t as bulletproof as I’d like to be. That being said, can’t argue with getting to enter at the same price as pre-covid given how much the business has undeniably grown. The numbers speak for themselves… I am also on a zoom call as we speak don’t tell my boss!
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Social Commerce and Personal Brands
Today I added to $PINS and $WIX
I have no idea whether this is the bottom, but I think I'll be happy with the price I paid in 5 years.
I think both businesses have a lot of potential, and I expect they will both be big beneficiaries of the trends toward social commerce, online shopping, personal branding, and SMBs online.

March Portfolio Update
$AAPL and $NVDA continue to grow as portions of the portfolio without me adding at all.

I’ve added a bit to $ATY, and I started a position in $WIX which I’m considering adding to. If I added to it, it would show up in my top 10 next month.
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Wix (Bull case? / Bear Case?)
I started ~2% position in $WIX last week. I’m down about 13% so far. I’m considering adding more.

Anyone own it? Any bear cases?

Initial question would be around what makes them stand out from the competition. Similar website building services are offered by:
• Weebly
• GoDaddy
• Webnode
• Site123
• Jimdo
• WordPress.org
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Penn National Gaming $PENN Podcast
The newest CCM Not So Deep Dive dropped today. We discussed Penn National Gaming.

There's a lot going on with this business. From a couple of key acquisitions (Barstool Sports and theScore) to a shift to online gambling and changing regulations, this episode has it all.

I have no position, but this is a fascinating company to watch because of the personalities involved and the high aspirations of the management team.

Best case scenario, $PENN's omni-channel strategy works brilliantly, and it mimics Disney's dominance in entertainment by making money off its customers in more ways than its competitors (in-person gambling, digital gambling, hospitality, media).

Check it out and let us know what you think!

Apple Podcasts
‎Chit Chat Stocks: Penn National Gaming (PENN) | Not So Deep Dive on Apple Podcasts
‎Show Chit Chat Stocks, Ep Penn National Gaming (PENN) | Not So Deep Dive - Feb 22, 2022

Love this! I had a massive position in theScore dating back to 2018 when it was still an OTC penny stock. Traded on Toronto Stock Exchange and then Nasdaq as it prepped for acquisition. Was swept up by $PENN and shareholders were dealt half cash and half $PENN shares for the deal. Turned into a 10x bagger for me.

Admittedly, I've been conflicted holding the $PENN shares ever since, as it is still a sizable position in my portfolio and has fallen off a bit since the deal (what hasn't?). That being said, with a cost basis now literally below zero for this one I'm okay weathering the storm. I do have faith in their omni-channel strategy working out well for them, but need some cleaning up of their balance sheet and overall market sentiment to turn to more risk-on before I think this play returns back to levels witnessed in 2020/early 2021. Really has a chance to become a Medusa with so many avenues it will operate and bring $ in from.
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Peloton: Wild Ride
I bought $PTON a few weeks ago with the thesis that the subscriptions would be stickier than people expect, and that it could start generating cash if it wanted.

I saw some risks, particularly with management, but I started a small position anyways.

Subsequently, news broke that Peloton was halting production of bikes and treads and then a response from the company contradicting that report. Next, CEO John Foley announced he would be stepping down as CEO and taking the role of executive chairman. Barry McCarthy, formerly of Netflix and Spotify, is taking the CEO’s office, and I am cautiously optimistic about the future.

He is committed to engineering a remarkable turnaround and seems to be a no nonsense type of guy. I was conflicted for months before buying $PTON. Now, I’ve been conflicted about what to do with all of the chaos of the past month. The CEO change, however, has bought the position some time. I’m intrigued and curious to see if McCarthy can do something amazing.

Have you ever owned $PTON and do you think the company can find its footing?

$PTON has been a roller coaster, but the core business model has not changed. It is significantly ahead of competitors in the undeniably growing connected fitness space and I firmly believe in the power of its ‘luxury’ brand appeal and the strength of its continuously growing community with impressively minimal churn. It’s a very noisy play with sentiment shifts, is hypersensitive to flashy media headlines and PR scrutiny, and been impossible to navigate demand forecasting out of the pandemic with remote certainty. Its fair share of bulls and bears that make debate fun, but I remain steadfast in the belief that the company will weather the storm over the years and that their story is far from over.

While I don’t mind the acquisition rumors, I feel they are premature and that Barry, given his experience and background, stepping in as CEO expresses that- will have few quarters to clean up balance sheet and remind investors that the company is here to stay
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February Portfolio Share
Apple continues to grow as a percentage of my portfolio.

I’m considering adding to my $ATY position, but I’m doing a bit more thinking about that.

I’m also looking at $WIX, $PINS, and constellation software.
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Let's go $ATY

It's almost that time for earnings... I'm trying not to add anymore until we get another look at how they are doing, but like you it's very tempting.
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2021 Complete Portfolio Review
2021 Complete Portfolio Review

I underperformed the S&P by 41.8%

It was not a particularly fun year, but I am looking forward to your feedback as I continue to grow as an investor.

I really appreciate the Commonstock community and am excited for even more great conversations in the year ahead.

Thanks in advance for reading, sharing, and giving me critical feedback!

optimistinvesting.substack.com
2021 Complete Portfolio Review
Down 13.1% and underperformed the S&P 500 by 41.8%

An issue with buying individual stocks and rebalancing the portfolio probably at least once a year is capital gains tax if this is a taxable account. You would have to continually over perform to make it worth it. As a retail investor it is hard to do. Dollar cost averaging in $SPY will outperform most strategies long term and would be easier mentally. Maybe add a small amount of $UPRO or a larger amount of $SPY in your portfolio.
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Apple Never Ceases to Amaze
This week Chit Chat Money and I released a podcast in advance of Apple’s earnings.



We talked services, Tim Cook, AR/VR, Apple Pay, Apple Watch, valuation concerns, supply chain and more!

With its earnings release yesterday, $AAPL proved once again that it can still put up impressive growth numbers.

785mm paying subscribers coupled with record iPhone sales led to a remarkable quarter.

$AAPL is my largest holding, and I expect to hold it for years to come. That being said, I have considered trimming a bit to redeploy into a handful of smaller bets.

How do you handle large positions?
Apple Podcasts
‎Chit Chat Stocks: Apple (AAPL) | Not So Deep Dive on Apple Podcasts
‎Show Chit Chat Stocks, Ep Apple (AAPL) | Not So Deep Dive - Jan 25, 2022

Hi Ian really enjoyed listening to the apple podcast. Super engaging and informative :)

With regard to your position in apple. I am guessing you don't think it is prudent to subscribe to the "put all your eggs in one basket—and watch that basket" saying. I know that your current position in your portfolio is 20% What percentage would you be comfortable trimming down to?
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