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@caridinacapital
Michael Szumielewski
$11.2M follower assets
Full-time investor · All about the stock market & investing in quality companies · App developer & entrepreneur, built a 7-figure app business with 2M MAU
128 following309 followers
95% of iPhones are produced in China. $AAPL needs to spread out its operational risk and diversify away from China. Aside from geopolitical issues, the wage increases in China should be reason enough.
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$COST reported net sales of $23.80B for the retail month of December 2022, an increase of +7.0% from $22.24B last year. Solid performance by Costco.

Stock up +5% on the news. The wait to finally buy continues 😅
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NASDAQ-100: $ENPH replaces $OKTA
Finally a change to the NASDAQ-100: $ENPH will replace $OKTA on Nov 21. While money-burning Okta is down -80% from its highs, Enphase Energy had a great year and is up +66%.

There are still some awful companies in the index like $LCID
Hopefully, the yearly $QQQ rebalancing will weed them out.
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$META shareholders need patience
After listening to the $META earnings call, it’s clear that the company is in an investing cycle which will increase margin pressure next year. A big chunk is the experimental bet on the metaverse, but Meta also invests heavily in AI to improve its recommendation engine.

Despite macro pressures, the core products are doing fine. The new Reels format sees good engagement and shows early signs of high monetization potential. Meta has pulled off similar transformations in the past, for example with the Stories feature.

Expenses will remain high for the time being. For some bets, management doesn’t yet know when and to what degree they will work out. Holding $META stocks will thus require patience and time for all issues to be resolved.
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S&P 500 component changes
Another S&P 500 rebalancing: Citrix Systems and Duke Realty have been successfully acquired and are replaced with $PCG and $EQT

The Pacific Gas and Electric Company is a 117-year-old utility company, while EQT is a 134-year-old energy company.

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Google improving its shopping experience 🛍
At its Search On event today, $GOOG announced a number of new shopping-related features that include visual shopping, personalization and buying with the help of trusted reviews.

IMO, Alphabet is feeling the heat from $AMZN. Amazon’s ad business is a big success which generated $8.76B in the second quarter alone, growing +18% from a year earlier. More and more people are using Amazon as their primary search engine for shopping, not Google.

Thus it isn’t surprising to me that Google is focusing more on improving the shopping experience at its search engine. Maybe even an acquisition of a shopping discovery site like $PINS would make sense in the future.

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Yes indeed. $GOOGL needs to keep the market share of the e-commerce vertical. it's far too important in the online world for them to lose it.
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Costco strong 💪
$COST is chugging along nicely. IMO, one of the best companies on the planet, customers love them and it shows in the financials. The company reported sales growth of +15.2%, comparable sales up +15.8% in the U.S., operating a total of 838 warehouses worldwide at the end of the quarter.

No plans for membership fee increases according to management. Also no plans to change the price of the $1.50 hot dog + soda combo 😅
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PayPal 🤷‍♂️
Analyzed $PYPL today and I still don’t like the business. The company has a narrow moat in e-commerce with lots of competition. No way to predict how the payment landscape will look like in 10 years.

A big hope is Venmo. However, the popular app only contributes around 4% to revenues and isn’t profitable. Wouldn’t base an investing thesis on the highly growing app alone, as I have seen some investors do.

Historically, PayPal has made relatively substantial acquisitions and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them acquire a company for a few billion soon. Management picked good targets in the past and integrated them well, so that’s definitely on the plus side for the company.
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I bought after the drop @ $74 and sold on the come up at $96. Wasn’t in love enough to hold long term; bought in June, sold in September. Easy +29% gain. I feel like I shouted probably learn some TA but some of the time it just seems like common sense on these swing trades. One my September entry; never seen valuation like this.
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Visa and Mastercard bill nothingburger 🍔
Every now and then, there is a temporary scare about $V and $MA. This time it’s a proposed bill about credit card swipe fees. However, the bill has absolutely no chance of passing anytime soon, if ever.

Time to take advantage of Mr. Market and get a few shares while they are down.
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Costco comparable sales up +10.1% in August 🛒
$COST reported comparable sales growth of +10.1% and net sales of $17.55B for the retail month of August, an increase of +11.4% from $15.75B last year. Comparable sales, excluding impacts from changes in gasoline prices and forex, increased by +8.7%.

The business is chugging along nicely despite macro headwinds. Warehouse clubs like Costco have actually benefited from the recent economic turbulence, as consumers are looking to mitigate inflation-driven prices by shopping at the warehouse club.

A price hike for Costco membership might be on the horizon soon since the company raises prices approximately every 5.5 years. $WMT owned Sam's Club and Costco’s main rival, already announced that it will be raising membership fees next month.

Personally, I made a mistake not buying the stock when it was in the $435 range a few months ago. I was too greedy and missed the chance to get in. It always seems too expensive. But there will be a next time, however I wouldn’t expect the stock to go down too much.
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