Key Updates On Previous Posts
I do have "ask me if I sold" in my bio, but just in case that goes unnoticed I wanted to provide some updates. I haven't been able to link a live portfolio here yet due to issues with my Canadian brokerage. I'm sure some would be disappointed in a few of my returns, given the poor performance of commodity-based equities the past few months, but for the most part I am holding and believe sector rotation has only recently begun.

  • Patriot Battery Metals continues to be my strongest performer (currently up 1188%).
  • Other solid returns include $BRW.V (>100%), $NGEX.V (70%), $FL.V (45%), $STEP.TO (47%). I am pleased that my theses regarding lithium, copper, and energy are proving to be reasonably correct so far.
  • On the downside, however, my hydrogen pick $NXH.V remains a "dog" which I am down 48% on. I still believe in the companies potential & will continue to hold, as exciting developments continue in the growing sector.
  • I have sold my diamond stock, North Arrow ($NAR.V). Diamonds may be a girl's best friend but not so much the equities. I actually still believe in the potential here but felt there were better opportunities to be had elsewhere (namely in the fertilizer sector, so I have reallocated).
  • Gold & silver equities continue to perform poorly, but given the unpredictable events globally, they still constitute approximately 10% of my portfolio.

I continue to hold a basket of junior exploration companies related to copper, nickel, lithium, vanadium, and manganese. If you have any questions about previous posts, please never hesitate to ask for an update.

Perhaps the most important update I wished to provide is related to $SBSW
I first discussed the company on June 9, in a post called "Sibanye Stillwater: A Risky But Potentially Rewarding Play". The company has had a tough year as they faced flooding in Montana, a strike in South Africa, and a pending lawsuit with Appian Capital. SeekingAlpha's Pearl Gray Equity & Research wrote about these risks in an article this morning:

I will add the same caveat that they did:

**_This piece isn't based on price discovery or sentiment. Therefore, I strongly encourage you to use this information as part of your holistic analysis instead of considering it in isolation.
_**

as well as this quote:

It needs to be considered that the company still pays a magnificent dividend and that it has a lot of latitude in the mining space with its 5-year EBITDA CAGR of 47.52%, conveying its cost advantages.

In my view, many of the aforementioned risks remain and must be strongly considered as well as monitored on a regular basis. I believe platinum & palladium could see a significant increase in demand if hydrogen fuel cell vehicles become mainstream. The article below is worth a read if that is of interest to you.

Several countries do have plans to expand the infrastructure of hydrogen refueling stations. If fuel cell self-driving car technology takes the lead in the marketplace, Palladium and Platinum will likely continue to grow in demand and have value both as currencies and as industrial commodities.


Palladium is expected to remain volatile with an improved outlook in Q4.


As always, please DYODD and I'm happy to answer any questions that I can!
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Jennifer's avatar
$22.4m follower assets
G&R: Commodity Bull Market's Hardly Begun
Not only is the commodity bull market not over, it has hardly begun. Look carefully at the chart below:

The latest Market Commentary by Goehring & Rozencwajg released on May 18, 2022 is another must read (download link: http://gorozen.com).

If investors had constructed a natural resource equity portfolio consisting of 25% energy, 25% metals & mining, 25% precious metals, and 25% agriculture, they would have significantly beaten the stock market in three historical periods of radical undervaluation (1929, late 60's, late 90's). Another time period in which commodity equities are radically undervalued? Today. Most importantly, in 1970 a similarly constructed portfolio would have returned 400% over a decade, handily beating the stock market which only returned 80% in that inflationary time frame.

G&R states that if the stock market stays at present levels, commodity prices would have to surge 600% to become overvalued relative to the stock market.

"The great commodity bull market has only started, and investors should use any resource market pullback as an opportunity to increase their exposure."

My commodity portfolio includes some of the following:

Energy

$ARX.TO (gas & condensate)
$SDE.TO (oil & gas)
$WCP.TO (oil)
$VET.TO (oil & gas)
$STEP.TO (oil field services)

Metals & Mining

$AN.V (lithium)
$ATX.V (copper)
$BRW.V (lithium)
$FDY.CN (copper)
$PMET.CN (lithium)
$FL.V (lithium)
$FPX.V (nickel)
$SPC.V (nickel)
$NGEX.V (copper)
$SR.V (vanadium)
$SURG.V (copper)
$VCU.V (copper)

Precious Metals

$FOXG.V (gold)
$KGC.V (gold)
$OZ.V (gold)
$AU.V (gold)
$APGO.V (silver)

Agriculture

$ERTH.CN (fertilizer)
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Jennifer's avatar
$22.4m follower assets
JP Morgan: Buy Oil & Gas

'Oil and gas stocks offer a natural hedge against inflation -- particularly energy inflation -- and have outperformed broader indexes by a wide margin through 2021 and so far in 2022.'

$VET.TO
$STEP.TO
$ROK.V
$WCP.TO
$TCW.TO
$SDE.TO
$MEG.TO
Jennifer's avatar
$22.4m follower assets
My Commonstock Portfolio
Still working on getting it linked up to the site, but opened a new account and bought the dip on Thursday. Dip kept dipping on Friday, but I added these names because I believe in them:
$AFM.V (tin, DRC)
$AN.V (lithium brine, Argentina)
$ATX.V (copper, Chile)
$BRW.V (lithium spodumene, Eastern Canada)
$EOG.V (oil & gas explorer, Guyana/Namibia/South Africa)
$FOXG.V (gold, Quebec)
$FPX.V (nickel, British Columbia)
$HZM.TO (nickel, Brazil)
$IVN.TO (exposure to multiple metals incl copper/nickel/zinc, DRC)
$MEG.TO (oil & gas, Alberta)
$NGEX.V (copper/gold/silver, Chile)
$ROK.V (oil & gas, Alberta & Saskatchewan)
$STEP.TO (oil field services, North America)
As always, please DYODD and know that I prefer higher risk/reward opportunities and may trade them quickly, so please ask questions, including if I sold!
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