Paul Cerro's avatar
$37.2m follower assets
Wow, a $11 billion markdown loss for Amazon on Rivian 👀

I saw one over the weekend and got to meet the woman who designed the full-kitchen in the Rivian Trucks. They are a very impressive product.
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$FTCH thoughts
Hey guys. just saw these comments (I'm new here). @investmenttalk @reasonableyield @nathanworden They have a great platform strategy they are heavily investing in, & M&A trend with future synergy via Yoox Net-A-Porter (see articles), they have leading tech position in luxury retail space which is underserved and which is not really open to players like $AMZN, Imo, which should result in outsized growth. They have a strong balance sheet if you look closely with plenty of cash. My model suggests a PT of $30+ with as margins improve. I also think $CROX, $ETSY, $SHOP, and $REAL are interesting. More to come as we go.


FTCH?
63%Bullish
36%Bearish
11 VotesPoll ended on: 06/14/22
Is there any gold in The RealReal?
The RealReal $REAL is the largest online marketplace for authenticated, resale luxury goods.

In general, luxury handbags from Chanel, Louis Vuitton, Gucci, etc. are costly. But when bought used from The RealReal, they're usually cheaper.

The RealReal has been plagued with skepticism over whether everything in its inventory is authentic or fake. However, that hasn't stopped $REAL from achieving aggressive revenue growth of 41% YoY.

One question many investors have amid a bear market/possible recession is whether a company is strong enough to weather the storm or not. I find that The RealReal has what it takes to whether a possible recession. While $REAL has a market cap of $307 million, the company ended Q1 with $361 million in cash. According to Yahoo Finance, their current ratio is above 2.58. The company has a strong balance sheet to weather the bad times.

For the ESG investors out there, The RealReal plays a role in the circular economy. They're allowing people to sell their unwanted luxury goods to someone who would want them. Buyers benefit the environment by choosing to buy something that is already made rather than ordering a brand new product. Also, The RealReal's board has 63% of its members as females, showcasing diversity.

Now for the gold.

$REAL is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the wants and needs of "The New Rich". The New Rich are more environmentally conscious and would prefer to buy their luxury goods as used rather than new. From millennials to Gen Z, those two demographics are all are going to be the biggest adopters of the circular economy. As they get wealthier, more of them are going to be shopping at The Real Real.

In the present day, The RealReal's cash balance is more than its market cap. Some value investors see it as a sign that a stock is trading at a cheap price.

And unlike other luxury consignment platforms, The RealReal takes possession of the items, authenticates it, and handles the listing. Having a full-service model is what creates a moat for The RealReal in the used luxury goods market. Even if The RealReal has issues with dealing with fake goods, it's best positioned to crack down on them. Meanwhile, other self-service platforms can't do anything about it since all they do is match buyers and sellers.

In sum, I believe that there is gold in $REAL.
Paul Cerro's avatar
$37.2m follower assets
Fashion resale market a big opportunity
The news: On Earth Day, April 22, lululemon athletica will expand its Like New trade-in and resale program nationwide.

  • The program, which is launching after a two-state pilot run last year, allows shoppers to trade in lululemon clothing such as pants, shorts, and jackets for an egift card. The retailer is also featuring an assortment of gently used lululemon items online.
  • A number of companies, including Another Tomorrow, Cuyana, Moda Operandi, Target, and Urban Outfitters, have also recently launched resale initiatives by teaming up with a partner, such as technology provider Trove Recommerce, luxury bag and accessories reseller Rebag, or online consignment store thredUP.

Expect this year to be a banner year for online fashion resale, with year-over-year sales growth of 46.6% reaching $15.50 billion thanks in part to more prominent retailers entering the space.

  • Forecasts project resale’s share of retail ecommerce apparel and accessories sales will rise from 6.0% in 2021 to 10.0% in 2025.

The news:
  • The program, which is launching after a two-state pilot run last year, allows shoppers to trade in lululemon clothing such as pants, shorts, and jackets for an egift card. The retailer is also featuring an assortment of gently used lululemon items online.
  • A number of companies, including Another Tomorrow, Cuyana, Moda Operandi, Target, and Urban Outfitters $URBN, have also recently launched resale initiatives by teaming up with a partner, such as technology provider Trove Recommerce, luxury bag and accessories reseller Rebag, or online consignment store thredUP $TDUP.

More on this: Expect this year to be a banner year for online fashion resale, with year-over-year sales growth of 46.6% reaching $15.50 billion thanks in part to more prominent retailers entering the space.
  • Forecast projects resale’s share of retail ecommerce apparel and accessories sales will rise from 6.0% in 2021 to 10.0% in 2025.

A focus on sustainability: Online fashion resale benefits from consumers’ growing interest in sustainability—particularly among younger consumers.
  • Nearly 50% of millennials and 38.4% of Gen Z shoppers consider sustainability “very important,” per a 2021 Composed and MaCher survey.
  • The growth in online fashion resale will be driven in part by the growing discretionary incomes of younger consumers, as well as a flood of retailers entering the space. That means there are more used goods available online to attract consumers to resale.
  • Resale platforms also benefit from flywheel effects, as buyers become sellers and vice versa.
  • Expecting annual average sales per buyer via online fashion resale marketplaces will more than double between 2021 and 2025.

The brand advantage: The initiatives by retailers such as lululemon $LULU can reassure consumers that the items they purchase are authentic and of a high quality. $REAL
  • That gives brands an advantage over peer-to-peer marketplaces, said Sky Canaves, eMarketer principal analyst at Insider Intelligence. “Brands can more easily gain consumer trust by guaranteeing the authenticity and condition of their secondhand offerings,” she said. “Resale can also improve relationships with consumers over the long term if brands can offer a consistent shopper experience for both new and used goods.”

The big takeaway: The resale market offers an enticing opportunity for brands to demonstrate their sustainability bona fides at the same time they’re opening up new revenue streams.
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Alberto Wallis's avatar
$23.3m follower assets
Upcoming Earnings Calendar (Feb 21th - 25th)
Hey guys! Here's the upcoming earnings calendar! Several very interesting reports coming up. Here's what I'll be looking forward to.

  • $MELI - How much did inflation impact their logistics margins?
  • $SQ - Cash App Users and Revenue Growth
  • $COIN - I think they will deliver a monster quarter. Crypto volatility should incentivize trading, driving commissions revenue above forecast.

If you'd like an easier way to track earnings dates, you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

TUE:


WED:


THU:


FRI:
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Mega week for earnings! (Nov 8-12)
Here are featured earnings we are paying attention to @ Fincredible.

The ones I'm paying close attention are:

$PYPL - Want to learn more about their plans for 'super app', integration of BNPL and if any color on rumored $PINS acqn, which is now dead (or never was there). I own some $PYPL

$PLTR - I think I'm the only non-bull on this company. I'm unsure of their technological prowess and confused by their corporate governance. I don't own and have no plans, but just curious.

$COIN - I have no exposure in crypto except via a managed investment on Titan, but I think this is a great way to continue to learn and try and get smarter

$U - I like this company a lot. I'm particularly interested in their non-gaming revenues which I think is a larger TAM. Selfishly, I'm hoping this stock falls after earnings (Sorry for the many who own it) so I can buy on the dip, but not expecting it.

$SOFI $AFRM - I view both of these innovative companies but are overpriced, and don't have as much moat as people give them credit. Yet always interested to hear about them to be proven wrong, and given my investments in $PYPL, banks, and various private fintechs

$EHTH - not Ethereum, but eHealth. Given they fired most of the management team recently, always interested in what the tone/focus of the call is.

BTW as of this week, for S&P 500 companies (plus other popular stocks) you can not only play the calls in real-time at Fincredible, but also read the transcript and monitor specific keywords in real-time. Check it out - https://app.fincredible.ai/latest-earnings

MON

TUE

WED

THU

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Eric Pelnik's avatar
$284.3m follower assets
Earnings this week
📞Which calls are you most excited about?

Monday, August 9th
$API Agora
$APPF AppFolio
$ETH Ethan Allen Interiors
$GBDC Golub Capital
$COMP Compass
$CHGG Chegg
$ELY Callaway Golf
$TTD Trade Desk
$DOYU Douyu International
$TSN Tyson Foods
$WKHS Workhorse Group
$REAL The Real Real
$SQSP Squarespace
$MILE Metromile
$SDC Smile Direct Club
$AMC AMC Entertainment

Tuesday, August 10th
$MCFE McAfee
$DOCS Doximity
$U Unity Software
$PUBM PubMatic

Wednesday, August 11th
$APP Applovin
$BMBL Bumble
$OBLG Oblong
$HIMS Hims & Hers
$VRM Vroom
$MTTR Matterport
$MQ Marqeta
$NIO NIO
$OPEN Opendoor
$SONO Sonos
$WKME WalkMe
$WIX Wix.com

Thursday, August 12th
$ABNB Airbnb
$BIDU Baidu
$DIS Walt Disney
$DASH DoorDash
$FIGS Figs
$LZ LegalZoom.com
$ZIP Ziprecruiter
$LTCH Latch
$PLTR Palantir

Friday, August 13th
None of interest

Sources: Business Insider, Google Finance, Yahoo Finance
$REAL investment thesis
$REAL struggled with Covid headwinds for longer than expected and dropped 43% on Q1 earnings.

However, it is severely undervalued. With sales picking up as lock-down eases and average analyst targets at $29, we see a +100% medium-term upside.
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$REAL investment thesis
$REAL struggled with Covid headwinds for longer than expected and dropped 43% on Q1 earnings.

However, it is severely undervalued. With sales picking up as lock-down eases and average analyst targets at $29, we see a +100% medium-term upside.
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Eric Pelnik's avatar
$284.3m follower assets
Earnings this week
📞Which calls are you most excited for?
**

Monday, May 10th**
$AFRM Affirm Holdings
$APPF AppFolio
$DUK Duke Energy
$TTD Trade Desk
$VOYA Voya Financial
$SPCE Virgin Galactic
$REAL The RealReal
$VCYT Veracyte
$MAR Marriot
$SDC Smile Direct Club
$WYNN Wynn Resorts

Tuesday, May 11th
$EA Electronic Arts
$ARMK Aramark
$COKE Coca-Cola
$FUBO Fubotv
$U Unity Software

Wednesday, May 12th
$AMAT Applied Materials
$JACK Jack in the Box
$DT Dynatrace
$VRM Vroom
$LMND Lemonade
$SONO Sonos
$WIX Wix.com

Thursday, May 13th
$ACB Aurora Cannabis
$BABA Alibaba Group
$ABNB Airbnb
$DIS Walt Disney
$DASH DoorDash
$FTCH Farfetch
$GDRX Goodrx
$PUBM PubMatic
$NEWR New Relic
$COIN Coinbase

Friday, May 14th
None of interest

Sources: Business Insider, Google Finance, and Yahoo Finance
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