$PRM Sellside vs YMC
While there is only one sell-side analyst on Koyfin for $PRM I found the estimates interesting. My projections are very similar to the analyst as shown below.
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Analyzing Pushback to Investment Ideas
Of all the writeups I have done, none has gotten more pushback than $PRM which I appreciate. It is extremely important to consider the pushback so you fully understand your own thesis. I wanted to write about why I am still confident in Perimeter Solutions going forward.

Pushback 1: The founder’s agreement is egregious. That statement is absolutely true. The founders have a payment structure of 1.5% and 18% and it will take a significant portion of Perimeter Solutions IRR. Without the agreement, I believe Perimeter Solution projected IRR would be in the low-to-mid 20s. Factoring it in (as an investor should), their IRR should be mid-to-high teens, giving them a large enough margin for error to still make this a good

Pushback 2: Forest fires acres burnt historically grew at ~3.5% per year, Perimeter Solutions should not have HSD volume growth. While it is true that forest fires grow at ~3.5% per year, this does not account for two industry trends that are benefitting Perimeter Solutions. The Increased urbanization of California requires forest fires to be fought earlier and an
increase in aerial firefighting capacity allows for more flammable retardant. These two trends enable Perimeter Solutions to have the HSD volume growth which they have had historically.

Pushback 3: Perimeter Solutions will not be able to push pricing increases on the fire department due to PR pressure. Perimeter Solutions is projecting MSD pricing growth which is sizeable, but not crazy. Flammable retardant only accounts for 2-3% of the Federal and California Fire Fighting budget. I believe that both of these agencies will have bigger things to worry about than Perimeter Solutions’ modest price increases.

Pushback 4: The number of acres burnt is unpredictable and in a bad year Perimeter Solutions’ stock price could tank. This statement is true as well. If I was a PM managing others people’s money with short-term pressures this would probably be a concern for me. I am not and can give my investments as much time as I want for them to work out. It is the biggest advantage of being a retail investor and I plan on using it.

The original article is here for anyone interested.
Pushback is healthy. Helps you see things you might of missed, or reaffirms things that you're getting on/against
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$PRM 2021 Annual Report
Yesterday, $PRM reported year-end results. This thread is going to focus on total year results and future forecasts due to Q4 being the “offseason” for fires. I found multiple very encouraging things in their results and earnings call.

The total number of acres burnt in 2021 decreased 30%, yet, Perimeter Solutions fire safety revenue increased 7% for the year. This shows their extreme pricing power and shows the potential growth during a strong fire season. Also, management talked about phosphate, a key input to flammable retardant, which has experienced significant inflation. Management
stated, “We expect to be able to recover all of our increased costs as well.” This is another example of their strong pricing power.

Management also gave very encouraging clarity around expected growth for 2022. “Assuming a roughly on-trend line 2022 fire season … we expect consolidated adjusted EBITDA growth consistent with, and perhaps above our long-term framework of mid-teens growth.”

In regards to oil additives “We’re encouraged by our initial findings in the oil additives segment and believe we’re likely to see some upside in 2022 relative to our expectation of flat revenue and adjusted EBITDA.” While the oil additives segment is much less important, it is still nice to see some upside. Overall, I thought it was a very positive report from management and I believe the long-term bull case has been strengthened.
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Nathan Worden's avatar
$312.8m follower assets
'The Market' Stock Pitching Game — Friday, March 11th at 12pm EST
"The Market" stock pitching game is a bracket-style elimination tournament for investors.

Audience members get to ask questions of the contestants and vote to decide the best pitch of the night.

Sign up to get the Zoom link for the March 11th game HERE

What is the best investment idea of the month? The Market will decide!

Here's the awesome lineup for the game this Friday:

Ayesha Tariq — $DIS @ayeshatariq
Sean Emory — $Z @seane
Strat Becker — $BBW @strat
Brad Freeman — $PGNY @stockmarketnerd
Sohaib Abbas — $SPGYF @sohaibab9
Young Money Capital — $PRM @youngmoneycapital
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