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Ad Tech looks stable if not bullish
With the rest of the market missing expectations and giving poor guidance, Ad Tech (businesses) have so far been pretty stable.

Granted, stock prices have dipped with the rest of the market, but the businesses are still performing.

$MGNI reported EPS in line at $0.08, a 166% increase YoY; with sales coming in at $118M, beating the estimate of $107M by 10%, +95% YoY.

$TTD EPS of $0.21 beat the $0.15 estimate by 40%, a +50% YoY gain. Sales came in at $315M, beating the estimated $304M by 3%, a +43% YoY gain.

$PUBM, I don't own anymore, beat EPS estimate by nearly 200% coming in at $0.14. Sales and Q2 guide were in-line with estimates as well.

$CTV just missed the EPS estimate of ($0.05), coming in at ($0.06), however sales beat by 21%, coming in at $25.9M. They reported organic YoY revenue growth of 30%, and +40% revenue growth including their new acquisition of TV Squared. Losses are expected to narrow next Q, and FY'22 revenue is expected between $135-$140M.

$ZMDTF had a +183% YoY Q with revenue of $18.7M and FY'21 revenue of $52.6M, +107% YoY. They also finished the year with a positive EBITDA of $5.8M for FY'21. The company is guiding for a FY'22 revenue of $74M-$80M, approximately +50% YoY.

We're still waiting on reports dates from $APPS $MOBQ $MVVYF.

$KBNT is on the bubble from last Q., they report on May 16.

And the one I'm most anxious/excited about, AcuityAds $ATY, reports on May 12th. They also just got approval for a stock buyback plan. I'll be watching this one closely.

I'd like to consolidate some of these Ad Tech positions after earnings season is over, but so far I've been mostly pleased with the sectors results.

How are you guy's feeling about the Ad Tech sector over the next few Q's? 👇

🦜
I've seen some interesting buzz surrounding $TTD recently. Their earnings report was very strong, and their partnerships, especially with $WMT, could drive further growth
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Kubient Earnings
Kubient $KBNT reported earnings yesterday after the close, and they were less than appealing.

Revenue was down and losses were up. I was close to closing my position on the headline numbers after hours, but decided to wait and listen to the earnings call this morning before making any decisions.

Much like the headline numbers, the prepared remarks were not very exciting, but the Q&A provided a glimmer of hope. Here's a short list of highlights:

  • FY21 Sales $2.7M, down from $2.9M YoY
  • FY21 Loss $10.3M, up from $9.6M YoY
  • Cash on balance sheet $24.9M
  • Market Cap $24M (after todays 14% drop-so far)

-Completed the onboarding of Acqui-hire target MediaCrossing.

-Removed KAI (their ad fraud software) from a stand-alone offering, now only offering it bundled with their Audience Cloud software (per client request according to management)

-Announced extension of their Yahoo partnership

-Announced new partnership with MediaMath

-38 full-time employee's with a target of 50 by end of 2022. (let go Russian contractors due to geo-political issues)

Commentary

Management expressed intention to focus on inorganic growth with talks ongoing with several different partners; including some larger organizations looking for a vehicle to public markets.

The addition of MediaCrossing personnel give's the team more bandwidth to bundle Kia with Audience Cloud and support advertisers full campaigns. This should funnel more revenue into their ecosystem.

The MediaMath partnership gives them access to a large contact list of advertisers, and they are focusing new hires on their sales teams.

My Take

No secret, these earnings were disappointing. With KAI no longer being broken out, it's much harder to judge progress (this was my primary thesis for investing).

There were some hopeful signs and a path forward to increasing revenue; but the losses need to be shrunk as well. They have approximately 2.5yrs of cash at their current run rate, so they're not at any immediate risk of insolvency, but that does not account for any M&A in the works.

They are currently trading below cash on hand, which tells me they are priced for failure. There's very little downside here with them trading at cash value, so I plan to hold shares for another quarter. If there is no sign of improvement on revenue, and they continue to burn cash, I will likely close the position at that time.

I do plan to close my $2.5 call options, but I will wait a few days and see if we can get a bit of a rebound. An M&A deal might provide a boost to share & option price in the near future as well.

There doesn't seem to be anywhere to go from here but up. Let's hope that's the case.

As always, appreciate your opinions. 🙏

🦜
Imo even if they’re trading below cash that does not mean there’s very little downside, it means the market views them as value destroying, which considering their net margin is -400%, they are, badly. Unless there’s a change the company going bankrupt is not unreasonable from what I’m hearing in this post
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Magnite $MGNI
This looks like an acquihire situation, similar to the Kubient $KBNT deal a month ago.

Details were not disclosed.

Appears to strengthen 1st part data & security.

With the employment situation, the onboarding of 5 experienced engineers probably makes it worth it.

Would love to hear from others with any insight or opinions. 👇

🦜

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Ad Tech: What's the Market Missing?
An investors advantage in the market is recognizing a trend before the general market and trading algorithms price in the upside.

I’m a huge Ad Tech bull, not a surprise if you follow me on social media or subscribe to my newsletter, but I think the market is missing something in Ad Tech, and it’s worth exploring further.

Where we've been

From “barkers” standing on a street corner, to print ads (signs & newspapers), radio ads, TV ads, banner ads, pop up ads, video ads, to CTV; we’ve come a long way in advertising.

There was a paradigm shift with each new form of media (print, radio, TV, Internet, and now connected television “CTV”).

Although we still see remnants of all the other forms of advertising previously employed, each new form of media has slowly taken share from the previous. Along with that media change there’s been a shift in the supply chain of advertising as well.

Advertising grew from a very local and personal experience into art departments, multi-national ad agencies, publishers, buy & sell side platforms, online market places, and much more.

To get an idea of all the different players in the industry, check out this edition of stock Squawk: “The World of Ad Tech

For a closer look at how CTV developed; Here’s an excerpt from Conviva with an excellent history summary.

You can find the full article “here”:

In 1984, the Cable Act significantly deregulated cable, and with this deregulation, there was an explosion of new cable operators that became the first major competitors to broadcasters until satellite TV entered the market in the ‘90s.

1994 saw DirectTV become the first satellite TV system. Then in 1996, cable providers spent $165 billion to overhaul their networks for high-speed internet over the next eight years. These upgrades were essential in setting the stage for OTT. The digital video recorder (DVR) was also critical in this evolution. In 1999, Americans got DVR which taught people how to be in control of the content they watched—what, when, and how.

By 2009, we had the introduction of Web 2.0, the first iPhone, and analog TV’s switch over to digital, all of which pushed a sense of being able to watch whatever you want, whenever you want—even on a mobile device. Up until this point, media companies were focused on the technology challenges of delivery, operating their own delivery networks to reach viewers. With the advent of high-speed internet, new OTT providers emerged without the limitations and complexities of operating their own networks. But delivering content over someone else’s network presented its own challenges.

In the early 2010s, the FCC established rules and regulations around OTT, and smart TVs fueled a whole new set of OTT providers.

Where are we going

Here’s where it get’s interesting. (stay with me here, I promise it relates)

The car was invented in 1886. Ford built a prototype in 1896 (10yrs later), and his first assembly plant in 1903 (another 7yrs). In 1907 there were 140k cars in use, by 1910 cars overtook the horse for passenger travel, and by 1917 there were over 5 million cars in use; 35x just 10 years earlier. It was a slow ramp (21yrs) from invention to acceptance/adoption; but once it took hold there was no turning back.

The iPhone was introduced in 2007. In 5 years, the smartphone went from 3% of the market to over 50%.

Smart TV’s started being manufactured in 2015. In 4 years, connected TV penetrated roughly 80% of US households; and since then we had a little thing called Covid happen.

The point is, the adoption of new technology is happening at a record pace in normal circumstances, but when the stars align that adoption can be parabolic.

A larger and larger share of content is going to continue to move to connected TV. Viewers are going to continue to find more of their desired programming on connected TV where they can watch what they want, when they want. Advertisers are going to continue to follow viewers.

What is the market missing

So why has the market spent most of 2021 selling off Ad Tech?

The invention of connected TV created a new advertising platform. A year+ of lockdowns has pulled forward what was already an accelerated adoption rate. The speed of that adoption has create both problems and opportunities.

I believe the market is underestimating both the growth rate, and the speed of innovation happening in Ad Tech.

Most of the problems faced by Ad Tech companies revolve around the visibility into who ads are being delivered to, and their conversion rates.
The walled garden’s of Google & Apple are putting pressure on the industry by eliminating cookies and restricting the sharing of 3rd party data.

These aren’t surprises, and the industry has been working on them for years. Some companies are creating their own alternatives, such as The Trade Desks UID2.0, some are creating their own platforms to track and optimize campaigns for maximum cost/conversion such as AcuityAds & Zoomd, and others are creating their own 1st party data such as Roku & Innovid.

To the point, the old way of doing things is not going to work in the future. The Neilson data that the TV advertising world has depended on for decades is practically worthless for CTV (and was questionable for analog TV). There will be unique solutions that find their place in the market and provide unique investing opportunities.

On growth, no one could have predicted the Covid Pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns followed by the exponential adoption rate of CTV. Even still, the market continues to under-estimate the growth of ad spend generally, and digital ad spend specifically.

Paraphrased from a Wall Street Journal article last week, you can find the article here: “Advertising Market Keeps Growing Faster Than Expected” (Data from GroupM of ad giant WPP PLC quoted in the article)

  • In December 2020, ad spend was expected to increase 12% in 2021.
  • In June 2021, numbers revised to 19.2% growth and a total spend of $749 billion.
  • This December, revised again to 22.5% growth and $763.2 billion in ad spend.
  • 64.4% of total advertising in 2021 will go to Digital advertising, up from 52% in 2019.

“The growth rate of advertising in general, and digital advertising specifically, is far faster than we anticipated in June,” said Brian Wieser, global president of business intelligence at GroupM.

Zenith predicts that global social-media advertising will overtake television ad spend next year. The firm expects social-media ad spend will reach $177 billion in 2022, TV advertising is estimated at $174 billion. The pandemic has accelerated marketers’ shift into social-media advertising. “We would have gotten there, but we got there sooner,” said Mr. Barnard, forecasting head at Zenith.

Advertising growth is happening faster than even those closest to the data have predicted. They’ve significantly raised forecast twice in the last 12 months, nearly doubling their prediction, all despite the supply chain headwinds we experienced throughout 2021. Could they be under-estimating 2022 growth as well?

Outlook

I think Ad Tech is getting lumped in with the rest of unprofitable small/mid cap growth stocks being sold off. If the space was overvalued in Feb'21 (it was), it is undervalued now.

COVID may not go away, but the over reaction (public & market) will come to an end. Supply chain’s will un-bottleneck. Companies will be trying to get their products in front of customers.

Businesses will also be looking for the best returns on their investments (ROI). They will want assurance that their ads are getting in front of their target audience, and those ads convert to increased revenue. That’s going to require access to new media and new technology to track results.

That’s what the market is missing. It’s not missing that their will be ad spend, or even the increase in ad spend, in so much as it is missing:

  • How those ads will be created
  • How/where those ads will be delivered
  • Where those ad dollars will go

The walled gardens are still going to be major players (and recipients) of ad dollars. But new media & new technology has opened up a world of opportunity for new players in the game.

Some Interesting Players

I’m going to skip the obvious here. You guy’s already know plenty about Google, Apple, The Trade Desk, etc. They have all held up pretty well the past year. Let’s look at some others:

ROKU ($ROKU): After forming a double top near $500/share earlier this year, Roku has traded all the way back down to $200. Interestingly, it’s lost over 50% of it’s value 4 times since it’s IPO in 2018. The short term headwind of potentially losing YouTube on their platform has now been resolved with a multiyear agreement with Google. Additionally, Best Buy has pulled TCL Google TV’s due to slow & buggy software. This is more confirmation that Roku has a superior product. For investors, we should be watching ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) for signs of continued growth.

Magnite ($MGNI): The largest independent SSP (sell-side platform), largely growing in-organically through acquisitions. This is not to say they aren’t growing organically as well. The market has been penalizing in-organic growth the back half of 2021, but all the acquisitions has put Magnite in a position to capitalize on being a one-stop shop for publishers. Their focus on CTV (the fastest growing sector of advertising) should also boost their revenue growth in 2022. (They seem to think they are undervalued as well, they just announced a $50M stock buy back on 12/13/21)

Pubmatic ($PUBM): Nearly as big as Magnite, and growing largely through organic growth, they are becoming a significant challenger in the space. They are not as concentrated in CTV as Magnite, and I’ll be watching for signs of growth slowdown as more ad dollars shift in that direction. That said, their management team has been excellent, and I look for them to continue to outperform in 2022.

Digital Turbine ($APPS): Digital Turbine is in a unique space with virtually no competition in an extremely tuff barrier to entry market. Think the Apple Apps store, you know Apple’s cash cow, but for Android. I don’t think the general market truly understands what they do, and thus has resulted in some large swings in price.

AcuityAds ($ATY): You can find my recent deep dive into AcuityAds “Here”. They are a high growth company trading like a mature value play. 2022 will be an opportunity to prove who they are. Where they are trading today, there is huge upside with minimal risk. Recommend you check out the deep dive linked above.

Innovid ($CTV): Innovid is on the infrastructure side of ad tech, focused on ad delivery. Since they are not in direct competition with any of the other players in the space, they are in a unique position to collect data from all sides. Remember I mentioned before that one of the biggest issues with the new CTV media was there was not a good way to get insight on ad targeting and conversion? Well this is the company who could solve that issue with their access to first party data. They have the potential to be the Neilson ratings of the 21st century. You can check out my initial summary of the company “Here”.

Kubient ($KBNT): Kubient’s primary appeal for me is their ad fraud software “KAI”. They’ve gotten great early results, with beta users extending partnerships and spend. They’ve recently solved one of their biggest problems (recruiting qualified employee’s) by acquiring MediaCrossing. Adding built in revenue, cross selling potential, and as importantly experienced personnel. The’re trading at a $34M cap and have $27M in cash. The acquisition only cost them 500k and a promise of about 5% in stock IF they hit milestones in ‘22. There basically trading for cash on hand and just got a big rev bump, cross selling opportunity, & skilled employees. I like it.

There are other (smaller) players in my portfolio as well, such as ZOOMD ($ZMDTF) and Moovly Media ($MVVYF), both definitely worth taking a look at. Either one could be a long term winner with patience and a long term view. (I recently added to $ZMDTF and plan to add more to $MVVYF soon)

Summary

We’re going to see the narrative shift day to day over the next few months depending on how the market is acting. It’s important for long term investors to look into the future and see where the market is going, develop your thesis, and have patience for it to come to fruition.

*I currently have approximately 20% of my portfolio dedicated to the advertising sector.

You can find the full newsletter article, and sign-up to get a copy sent straight to your inbox here: "Stock Squawk"

Look forward to hearing your opinions in the comments 🙏👇

🦜
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Bought 40% more KBNT $2.50 Calls
BULLISH
05/20/22 Exp, Opening
Kubient $KBNT Acquisition

Kubient Acqui-Hires MediaCrossing

They've struggled to hire qualified personnel over the last couple of Q's; so this acquisition helps solve that problem along with bringing new clients and revenue.

After an initial 6% gain, shares sold off with the rest of the market. I've added to my May20 $2.5c options after the sell-off.

🦜

kubient.com/in-the-news/ku.../
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Advertising... From Micro to Large Cap!
You guy’s know I love Ad Tech. And you guy’s know I like the occasional speculative investment. So this week I wanted to run down a few of my Micro-Caps, but ended up writing about all my Ad Tech positions. These are all either in the port, were in the port, or on the watchlist to add to the port.

Micro’s are not for the faint of heart. Details are scarce, information is slow to get out, and volatility is high. So remember to size your positions according to your risk tolerance.

And if you’re still trying to figure out the difference between a SSP/DSP, never fear, remember to check out “The World of Ad Tech” to get the full breakdown on the industry.

Without further delay, let’s dive in. 👇

Moovly Media ($MVVYF)

Market Cap: $19M

Share Price: $0.12

Earnings: ‘21 projection of $1.55M, up about 10% YoY; operating expense $4.4M, up about 50% YoY

What they do: Moovly provides cloud-based creative tools for users to create compelling marketing, communication, and training videos & presentations. Clients include over 300 of the Fortune 500, along with many other small businesses, freelancers, and Ivy league universities. They also recently announced they were launching podcasts as well!

My interest: I started this position a little early and have averaged down a couple of times. I’m impressed by their website & social media compared to many peers. Positive news and partnerships continue to be announced on almost a weekly basis. They have had a couple of quarters with Revenue above operating expenses, but they need to show consistent signs of becoming profitable (or at least breaking even). I love the company, if they can increase revenue and cut costs, I believe this name can have a nice run. Would likely start trimming shares over $0.50.

Current Position: 50,000 shares @ .20 basis; Approx. 0.5% position

ZOOMD Technologies ($ZMDTF, $ZOMD)

Market Cap: $31M

Share Price: $0.33

Earnings: 2Q2021 Rev $11.1M +97% YoY and a record for the company. Record adjusted EBITDA of $1.3M. Maintaining +30%-40% full year rev growth. $2M cash on hand and $0 debt.

What they do: ZOOMD offers a site search engine to publishers and a mobile app user acquisition platform to advertisers. In January 2021, they launched a self service SaaS platform to save it’s customers time, resources, and money in the ad buying and optimization process.

My interest: I bought my full position over 2 days in Jan ‘21. This is a moon or bust position for me that I have no plans to average up on. Would consider trimming around $1 depending on market conditions at the time.

Current Position: 20,000 shares @ .23 basis; Approx. 0.6% position

Kubient ($KBNT)

Market Cap: $49M

Share Price: $3.50

Earnings: 2Q2021 Rev $500k, 440% YoY increase for the same period. Quarterly loss of (0.12) per share, YoY increase of 71% from a loss of (0.42) for the same period. Cash balance of $30.5M.

What they do: Kubient operates “Audience Cloud”, a flexible open marketplace for advertisers & publishers. Their Ad Fraud software “KAI” has been reported to have significant success with a pipeline of interested customers. Rollouts to new customers has been slow, and primarily delayed by the inability to hire enough qualified personnel.

My interest: I’ve been in & out of this company a few times, but I’m planning to stay as long as they continue to get a positive response to KAI. It’s a definite market need, and early success could compound quickly. They are also a potential buy-out target. Currently trading near 1.5x cash on hand, I’m willing to give them a little time to increase hiring and decrease roll out time to new customers.

Current Position: 2,000 shares @ $4.82 basis; Approx. 0.6% position

AcuityAds ($ATY, formally $ACUIF)

Market Cap: $456M

Share Price: $7.50

Earnings: 2Q2021 Revenue $30.3M (+55%) & $5.4M (+154%) in adjusted EBITDA. Positive net income of $3.4M and $93.4M cash on hand.

What they do: Acuity is disrupting the traditional Ad Tech model with their platform Illumin. Illumin offers planning, buying, & omnichannel intelligence in a single platform. It is a radically easier and more effective interface for placing online ads. Advertisers can map their own journey without an agency. This could open up a huge market for small mom & pop companies to utilize digital advertising on a limited budget. You can check out a short thread I wrote on Acuity back in April ‘21 HERE!

My interest: This is all about the story. They are trying to bring the little guy to programmatic advertising through their software Illumin. As long as that story stays intact, I will remain an investor. I had a position at $6, and doubled it when they dipped from $26 to $12. No plans to add or trim.

Current Position: 2,000 shares @ $8.00 basis; Approx. 1.5% position

Innovid ($IACB)

Market Cap: $1.3B (implied valuation)

Share Price: $10.00 (SPAC)

Earnings: ‘21 Revenue $68.8M +21% YoY; Gross Profit $56.1M +81% margin; Adjusted EBITDA $2.6M

What they do: Innovid is a independent ad delivery and measurement platform for connected TV. Uniquely from their competitors, they consider themselves an infrastructure software platform that works with (not against) DSP, SSP, Publisher, etc. You can read more on this CommonStock Memo HERE!

My interest: SPACs have been out of favor, and there is no telling how the market will react when they de-SPAC (planned for 4th Q 2021). I started a position in June, that I sold at the beginning of September to free up some trading capital (it hasn’t moved in months). I plan to restart the position by the end of the month.

C**urrent Position are you** you: Plan to buy a starter position (1000 shares) by the end of September. Will likely add on any de-SPAC weakness.

PubMatic ($PUBM)

Market Cap: $1.44B

Share Price: $28.00

Earnings: FY21 Expected Rev $207M, EBITDA $68M, Margin 33%. $122M Cash, no debt.

What they do: PubMatic is an SSP, providing publisher inventory to agencies and advertisers.

My interest: The Ad Tech space is young with a ton of innovation and growing TAM. I think PubMatic is slightly undervalued compared to it’s peers, which provides an additional investment opportunity in the space. This position is more of a highbred Swing for me, meaning I may sell on a stock rebound, but open to holding if it looks like they start gaining market share relative to other holdings.

Current Position: 750 shares @ $30 basis; Approx. 2% position

Tremor ($TRMR)

Market Cap: $1.5B

Share Price: $19.00

Earnings: FY21 Expected Rev $303M, EBITDA $117M, Margin 38%

What they do: Tremor plays both sides of the SSP/DSP game.

My interest: History suggests that companies who focus on one side or the other have more success, but earnings and valuations are getting interesting compared to their peers. It’s on the short list to add to the portfolio.

Current Position: None currently, but have a starter limit order in at $18.00/share

Magnite ($MGNI)

Market Cap: $3.88B

Share Price: $29.00

Earnings: FY21 Expected Rev $416M, EBITDA $131M, Margin 31%

What they do: Magnite is the world’s largest independent sell-side advertising platform. They continue to make strategic acquisitions, such as SpotX, to further their industry dominance, specifically to better serve the fast-growing CTV market.

My interest: My 2nd Ad Tech purchase ever. After buying the largest DSP ($TTD) in June 2020, I found the largest SSP player (Magnite) in August, and averaged up in September. They continue to lead the space with their focus on on where advertising is going (CTV). I’m a little price anchored with this position, so have been adding some option plays on these dips below $30. No plan to trim or sell. You can find my write-up from June HERE.

Current Position: 1500 shares @ $6.77 basis; Approx. 5% position

Digital Turbine ($APPS)

Market Cap: $6B

Share Price: $63.00

Earnings: 1Q2021 Rev $212M vs $190M estimate; guidance for 2Q2021 Rev $300M-$306M vs $291M Est.

What they do: Digital Turbine works in the Ad Tech space, but in a very unique manner. Through their software platform Ignite, they help advertisers, mobile operators, and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) all at the same time. Pre-installed on over 700 million Android devices, Ignite is used to pre-load & load mobile applications among other verticals (very rudimentary summary). IQ (aka: @investmentquotes) has an excellent deep dive on $APPSHERE!

My interest: It took me a while to understand what these guy’s actually did, and I still think they are misunderstood by the market. They are the ONLY player in their space. Maybe not the exact comparison, but I think of them like the Apple App Store for Android.

Current Position: 300 shares @ $64.57 basis; Approx. 2% position

The Trade Desk ($TTD)

Market Cap: $35B

Share Price: $73.00

Earnings: 2Q2021 Rev doubled to $280M from $139.4M a year ago. 3Q guidance was raised to $282M from $275M consensus estimates.

What they do: The largest DSP on the market, they service ad agencies & advertisers. A reminder, you can check out “The World of Ad Tech” Newsletter for details on how all the players interact with each other.

My interest: My first exposure to Ad Tech was seeing $TTD mentioned all over FinTwit. After taking a small position in June of 2020, I finally averaged up on the May ‘21 dip. They are the biggest player in the space, and winners continue to win. No plan’s to trim or sell.

Current Position: 350 shares @ $45.13 basis; Approx. 2.5% position

Summary

I discovered the whole world of Ad Tech thanks to my fellow FinTwitters. It is my 2nd largest investment sector behind E-commerce, representing 18% of the portfolio.

I was lucky to discover the sector as it was coming out of the Covid lows, and although it’s had some downward pressure on it the last few months, we are still in the early stages of opportunity.

I’ve listed the pure plays here, but there are many more companies in the industry. I also own $ROKU $FB $EGLX $AAPL $AMZN and more… that all have a piece of the advertising space.

I hope this weeks Memo introduces you to a few names you may not know. Remember to do your own due diligence, and size your positions according to your risk appetite.

You can check out the full Newsletter here: Stock Squawk Newsletter!

What are your favorites?

🦜
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AdTech catching a bid today.

Interesting that most of the love is going to the big players $TTD & $MGNI

Some of the smaller companies haven't caught the attention from the market yet. Could be a nice catalyst into earnings.

$APPS $ATY $KBNT all could see big moves with earnings beats.
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Google delays the blocking of 3rd party cookies until 2023!

Major Short term implications for Ad Tech. We're seeing strength across the sector today (good for my Ad Tech heavy portfolio 😊).

No change in the long term outlook, other than it gives these companies 2 more years to figure out an alternative.

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2020 in Review
I've spent the past few days reviewing my 2020 trade history. I've grown a lot personally this year, along with growing my portfolio.

I started managing my own funds in late February this year, and the market promptly crashed the next week. I had initially picked a mix of individual companies, index funds, and ETF's. After riding out the March crash, and finding FinTwit in April, I quickly rotated out of funds & into individual Companies.

My current portfolio has 44 positions, of which 2 to 5 were started in each month from February to November (26 positions total). I have 18 new positions started in December (16 are less than 1%). These numbers reflect my evolving strategy of taking spec positions in several new companies, then trimming to LT winners.

What I believe is more telling, is looking at all the positions I've sold. Since inception in Feb '20, I've sold 180 full or partial positions for a total of $1,445,000. That's a 3x turnover of my original deposit. And the realized profit from all that selling is a whopping $29k :)

My largest realized gain was $14k on $ARKW, and my largest realized %Gain was 195% on $PLTR (1/2 position).

My largest realized loss was $7,500 on $QLD (Feb.), and %Loss was 37% on $OXY (May).

Again, that's 180 sales, $1.445M, net gain $29k. That's a 2% return for those counting.

As these numbers indicate, I have cycled through many positions. I sell most for ST swing trades & small losses when a position doesn't work to my thesis or fit my LT plan. I've gotten better at cashing out swing plays and cutting losses early, my last 22 sells of Nov/Dec purchases have netted a $250 gain.

But as part of this strategy, it allowed me to find $ACUIF $AI $JMIA $PTON $MDB $PIC within that same timeframe. These combined have an unrealized gain of 62% & $24k.

As an example of this strategy, I purchased in equal amounts $ACUIF $PUBM $KBNT for a total of $18k on 12/1/20. On 12/21/20 I sold $KBNT for no gain & $PUBM for a 8% loss ($550). $ACUIF is currently up 165% & $10k. Of the original $18k, $ACUIF is valued at $16k and I have $11k invested in other opportunities.

This is my basic approach to finding new LT positions using the 10% of my portfolio capital I allocate for speculative positions.

Back to the current stats, in 44 positions I have a +48% in unrealized gains. The largest dollar gain is in $SE at $49k, and the largest percent gain is $MGNI at $285% (technically $SE would win this one too if I hadn't averaged up).

Over time, these 44 positions will be trimmed as swing plays come to fruition and are sold off. These will continue to fund the small losses on spec positions in the continued search for LT holds.

This strategy works for me currently, and will certainly continue to evolve over time. Time will tell if it continues to be a winner when the market inevitably changes.

There is no way I would have been able to adjust strategies in such a short period without the incredible insights of this community on CommonStock & FinTwit.

Thank you all for your contributions to this community. You are all changing more lives than you can possible know.
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