My $ELY trades
As noted to subscribers in recent days...$ELY announced better than expected quarterly results. Stock is down 50% in past year.

The Top Golf acquisition (completed in March 2020, just as the pandemic set in) should finally start to pay off. Company is noting increased 'corporate outing' activity at Top Golf and raised estimates for 2022.

Analysts expect profits of $0.66 this year, $0.88 next year, and $1.22 in 2024. Let's not forget that these estimates still largely reflect the depressed business activity of the pandemic.

I'm also encouraged by $ELY insider buys. The CEO and CFO made large purchases in December at $25, then even bigger buys in March at $21.

Risk control is always important. We should always know at what price we'll get out of an investment or trade if it's not going our way. I show subscribers a specific formula to make sure we don't take on too much risk, relative to size of portfolio.
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I have to admit...I haven't been to one yet myself. But my son is agitating to go. Looks like I'll have to get the dust off my clubs in the garage...
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Just released earnings and preliminary report looks solid. Here are the highlights. Will post more detailed breakdown once I listen to call

  • Q1 2022 consolidated net revenues increased $388.6 million (+59.6% compared to Q1 2021) to $1,040.2 million
  • Q1 2022 GAAP net income of $86.7 million and non-GAAP net income of $70.9 million
  • Q1 2022 total segment operating income margin improved 140 basis points on a pro forma basis, which includes Topgolf results for the full three-month period (see "Segment Results" below for pro forma results)
  • Q1 2022 Adjusted EBITDA increased $42.0 million (+32.9% compared to Q1 2021) to $169.8 million
  • Increased full year 2022 revenue outlook to $3,935 million - $3,970 million and Adjusted EBITDA outlook to $535 million - $555 million
There is a new Top Golf opening Friday in El Sugundo, CA. I was searching Twitter to see what was being said about it and saw the below tweet. I really don’t think Wall Street understands the demand and popularity of these venues. It is either that or people just see Callaway and think of clubs and balls but Top Golf is the secret sauce and it is very repeatable. Chips comments are below from their last earnings release and touch on this:

“While we are on venues, I want to remind everyone on the success rate we are consistently delivering here. We had nine very successful openings in 2021 and the financial performance of this group is on track to exceed our financial expectations despite the challenging operating environment. I’ve had a ring side seat watching Topgolf open venues for nearly ten years now; and, in my opinion, we are uniquely good here! As a result of increasing brand strength, the core competency of our real estate team and our operating team’s expertise; this is now a proven and repeatable model, a fact I believe the financial community may not fully appreciate yet.”

In the mean time, I will just keep accumulating shares 😎
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$ELY 8% Position - $25.43 Cost Basis
I posted about my smallest position, $PTON, the other day and figured I would make a post about my largest single stock position (81% of my portfolio is index funds). I love a couple segments of this business as a consumer and think its very reasonably valued right now. Before I jump into Callaway as a whole and a couple individual business segments I think will lead their growth, here are a few bullish side notes:

-Company bought back $25 Million worth of shares in Q4. Purchased 947,000 shares at costs basis of $26.41. Authorized to purchase another $25 million worth of shares
-In December, CFO bought 15,000 shares at $25.79 for a total of $386,850. The CEO bought 4,000 shares at $25.55 for a total of $102,200

Market Cap $4.6 Billion
-2021 Consolidated Net Revenue was $3.1 Billion, a 97% increase YoY vs 2020
-2022 Guidance of Consolidated Net Revenue of $3.8 Billion on Q4 earnings call
-2021 EBITDA of $445 Million, increase of 170% over 2020 and guidance of $490-$515 Million EBITDA for '22
-Available liquidity as of Q4 call of $753 Million between cash on hand and under credit facilities

As a consumer, I am a huge fan of 2 segments of this business.

Top Golf - this is the secret sauce and why I think $ELY has a bright future. We have one in Tampa about 30 mins away and it is always packed. It doesn't matter if its a Tuesday afternoon or Saturday morning, the bays are always full. Serious golfers love it, casual golfers love it, and people that have never even played love it. We have been going consistently for about 5 years now and having the ability to invest in this business is what drew me to Callaway. Some numbers on Top Golf:
-70 locations in 6 different countries. Opening 10, possibly 11, locations in '22
-Same venue sales up 9% vs 2019 levels despite Omicron and its impacts on corporate bookings
-Revenue totaled $994 million for Q2, Q3, and Q4. Merger completed in March so revenue just reflected on those 3 quarters.

TravisMathew - Really like their attire and they are experiencing huge growth.
-Retail comp store sales were up over 67% versus 2020
-Ecommerce up 30% over 2020 numbers
-Launched a women's line in Q4 and it sold out in 48 hours
-Big Cat from Barstool loves the brand and has tweeted about it a few times. Regardless of your thoughts on Barstool, it doesn't hurt to have one of their biggest personalities promoting the brand for free

Possible Headwinds/Stock drawbacks:
-Increase in freight costs
-Inflation with commodity prices and labor
-New outbreaks of COVID continuing to hamper corporate bookings side of Top Golf
-From a personal preference standpoint, I think the ELY ticker has to go. Unless someone has researched the stock, they generally have no clue what company this references
-Chip, the CEO, has used the phrase Modern Golf on the last few calls for his vision on the company. I love the concept and believe they are executing but, as with the ticker, don't think most people think this when they hear the brand Callaway and just think of clubs and balls

All in all, I am very bullish on golf. COVID has provided a huge spike for helping grow the game but I think most of those golfers are here to stay based on what I see on the course. Netflix is in the process of shooting a golf version of Drive to Survive (incredible show if you haven't watched it) that will be a Docuseries following some of the biggest names on tour (Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler, Jordan Spieth, DJ, Bubba Watson, etc.) and I think that will be a great tailwind for the game when it is released next year.

Anyone other $ELY investors out there? I would also welcome some bear cases. Thanks for reading!
Upcoming Earnings Calendar (Feb 7th - 11th)
Hey guys!

A key week is ahead of us! Here's what I'm interested in:

  • $APPS - One of my largest holdings. I'd like an update on the progress of single-tap and the tests they were running with Meta $FB. I'm also interested in seeing how their device footprint is expanding after their latest deals.
  • $DIS - They've invested heavily on Marvel and Star Wars series for Disney+, so let's see if this translates to lower churn and higher growth.
  • $NET - Really interesting stock but the valuation seems too high. Let's see if there's a good opportunity to enter post-earnings.

Good luck!

If you'd like an easier way to track earnings dates, you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

MON:

TUE:

WED:

THU:

FRI:
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Ian Gray's avatar
$25.3m follower assets
This week I’m watching:


All are significantly off their highs. $PTON and $UPST are new watches for me, but I’m starting to get pretty interested. I currently have some cash, and I think it is likely I end up investing In $PTON before the end of the year.

Anyone invested in $PTON or $UPST and have thoughts to share?
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Ian Gray's avatar
$25.3m follower assets
I’m starting to slowly deploy the cash from the $TSLA shares I sold.

I bought $PINS yesterday

Next week I’ll be considering:


Do you all have any ideas I should take a look at this weekend?
I like $TDOC and $PYPL at these levels, but I haven't sold anything yet to raise cash for additional moves. I have been DCA'ing into more $ATY calls with the small amount of cash I have on hand 😊
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Mega week for earnings! (Nov 8-12)
Here are featured earnings we are paying attention to @ Fincredible.

The ones I'm paying close attention are:

$PYPL - Want to learn more about their plans for 'super app', integration of BNPL and if any color on rumored $PINS acqn, which is now dead (or never was there). I own some $PYPL

$PLTR - I think I'm the only non-bull on this company. I'm unsure of their technological prowess and confused by their corporate governance. I don't own and have no plans, but just curious.

$COIN - I have no exposure in crypto except via a managed investment on Titan, but I think this is a great way to continue to learn and try and get smarter

$U - I like this company a lot. I'm particularly interested in their non-gaming revenues which I think is a larger TAM. Selfishly, I'm hoping this stock falls after earnings (Sorry for the many who own it) so I can buy on the dip, but not expecting it.

$SOFI $AFRM - I view both of these innovative companies but are overpriced, and don't have as much moat as people give them credit. Yet always interested to hear about them to be proven wrong, and given my investments in $PYPL, banks, and various private fintechs

$EHTH - not Ethereum, but eHealth. Given they fired most of the management team recently, always interested in what the tone/focus of the call is.

BTW as of this week, for S&P 500 companies (plus other popular stocks) you can not only play the calls in real-time at Fincredible, but also read the transcript and monitor specific keywords in real-time. Check it out - https://app.fincredible.ai/latest-earnings

MON

TUE

WED

THU

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Eric Pelnik's avatar
$266.8m follower assets
Earnings this week
📞Which calls are you most excited about?

Monday, August 9th
$API Agora
$APPF AppFolio
$ETH Ethan Allen Interiors
$GBDC Golub Capital
$COMP Compass
$CHGG Chegg
$ELY Callaway Golf
$TTD Trade Desk
$DOYU Douyu International
$TSN Tyson Foods
$WKHS Workhorse Group
$REAL The Real Real
$SQSP Squarespace
$MILE Metromile
$SDC Smile Direct Club
$AMC AMC Entertainment

Tuesday, August 10th
$MCFE McAfee
$DOCS Doximity
$U Unity Software
$PUBM PubMatic

Wednesday, August 11th
$APP Applovin
$BMBL Bumble
$OBLG Oblong
$HIMS Hims & Hers
$VRM Vroom
$MTTR Matterport
$MQ Marqeta
$NIO NIO
$OPEN Opendoor
$SONO Sonos
$WKME WalkMe
$WIX Wix.com

Thursday, August 12th
$ABNB Airbnb
$BIDU Baidu
$DIS Walt Disney
$DASH DoorDash
$FIGS Figs
$LZ LegalZoom.com
$ZIP Ziprecruiter
$LTCH Latch
$PLTR Palantir

Friday, August 13th
None of interest

Sources: Business Insider, Google Finance, Yahoo Finance
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