Near term pullback?
Breadth divergences are starting to appear in the major US indices. With the last week of Jan pulling back 4ish percent from the recent highs, we're at the 50 day moving average and December highs in the S&P. Next area of support is 3500 areas, which is the September highs and 100 day moving average.

With January being negative for the S&P, the month's returns are 84% indicative of the rest of the year. When negative, the market is tends to be flat or experience a 10% drawdown (which is avg market year).


Raise your stops and your cash in the near term. But in the future, Mr Market will be right, and my guess is just a blindfolded dart throw.

Jan 2021 Holdings (not linked yet) -
Stocks:
$SFIX - 8.6%
$MDB - 8.2%
$BRK.B- 8.2%
$PLTR - 8.2%
$CD - 5.7%
$SQ - 5.6%
$UPWK - 5.2%
$DOCU - 5.2%
$MBIO - 4.9%
$MP - 4.0%
ETFs:
$EEM - 8.5%
$MSOS - 5.8%
$VVO - 5.6%
$QQQJ - 4.2%
Options:
$CHD - 1.5%
$WWE - .6%
CASH: 10%
While it is just one day, the market showed a strong beginning of the month start, after finishing January abysmally. Again, one should be open minded to ALL outcomes.

**Data to counter my thesis for a flat to pullback February for the major indices:**
  • Tom Lee believes that much of the selling & "de-grossing" from funds reached its peak last week. This would mean much LESS selling pressure in the near term.

**Data to support a digestion of gains, or pullback in February:**
  • 52 week highs continue to collapse -
  • Poor reactions to earnings from huge names like AAPL, and those large cap growth names are under recent support (ie AAPL needs to stay above $138 to remain bullish, otherwise take a wait & see approach)
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