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Jared Watson's avatar
$10.8m follower assets
S&P down 1% today while my portfolio is up 3.5%. Impressed and slightly concerned that I now have a negative Beta portfolio.
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My portfolio
I like how people post monthly or quarterly portfolio updates. I’m learning a lot about what people are actually putting their hard earned money into by reading these.

My current mindset is, this is a top 10 bear market all time, as long as your buying companies without near term bankruptcy risk and with a long enough time horizon, it’s easy to buy great stocks a low multiples right now. With that said now that I’ve mostly finished building my new positions in $YETI and $DOCU. This month I’m looking to add more to my existing positions. Mostly $GOOGL, $ASML, $MELI, $PYPL, and $WRBY. I also started a small position in $UPST and I’ll cont to add to that as well.
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Nice, most are solid names in my book (the once that are not solid is because I don’t know much about them 😅)
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Conor's avatar
$12.9m follower assets
My $ABNB trades
Another $100 into my Robinhood account that is following @brianferoldi and @brianstoffel's Commonstock portfolio.

This is the 11th stock added to the portfolio in the 11th week. So far I am loving the picks by Brian and Brian and have even added $SEMR, $MELI, and $AXON to my main account on Fidelity.

What stocks do you like best out of the Brian's picks so far? Comment below!
Paul Cerro's avatar
$27m follower assets
Klarna launches loyalty feature to hone in on engagement and sales growth
The news: Klarna launched a feature that lets customers store loyalty cards in the Klarna app, per a press release.

Here’s how it works: Customers can save their loyalty cards in the app by scanning the barcode on the physical card or typing in their membership number.

The feature will automatically apply any discounts and rewards when customers scan or display their Klarna app at checkout. It’s powered by Stocard, the Germany-based discount shopping platform that Klarna acquired last year.

All about engagement: Although Klarna achieved major user growth in the last few years, it seems to be focusing more on monetizing and increasing sales from its customers. Klarna’s US user base grew 70.1% year over year (YoY) in 2021, per Insider Intelligence forecasts, but growth is expected to slow to about 45% YoY in 2022.

Consumers value loyalty programs and rewards highly. Klarna can use its new feature to simplify rewards redemption: 61% of consumers worldwide said they’d use loyalty programs more often if the rewards were automatically applied at checkout, per 2022 Salesforce data.
Letting customers store these cards within its app can help Klarna drive engagement during checkout. That could increase the chances that customers use Klarna to pay—boosting Klarna’s revenue potential. The feature may also complement Klarna’s own loyalty program and incentivize use by letting customers bundle loyalty programs to increase their rewards potential.

Why it matters: Klarna has been buffeted by financial headwinds—making it more important than ever to seek out growth opportunities.
  • It laid off 10% of its staff last month due to what CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski called “a tragic and unnecessary war in Ukraine, a shift in consumer sentiment, a steep increase in inflation, a highly volatile stock market and a likely recession.”

  • Klarna is reportedly seeking a fundraising deal that would bring its valuation down to just $15 billion—about two-thirds lower than it was valued last year. Fears of a recession have spooked investors, who are prioritizing profitability over growth. Klarna and other BNPL providers have struggled with profitability despite rapid user growth.

  • BNPL regulation is starting to take shape across many markets—which could strain growth for providers like Klarna: Just this week, the UK government outlined plans to regulate BNPL, which included requiring providers to gain approval from the Financial Conduct Authority and carry out eligibility checks.
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Edmund Simms's avatar
$18.3m follower assets
Cost of drinking crisis
•••

A preview of the cartoon in Friday's issue of Valuabl. Subscribe now at: valuabl.substack.com
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Chinese Sportswear Market
Domestic players in China have done much better than I assumed...

Interestingly, Nike has RARELY mentioned either of these companies on quarterly calls, at Investor Day events, etc.; I see one instance in the past decade (per BAMSec). A bit odd, no?

FWIW, here's CEO John Donahoe on the Q2 FY22 call: "I'm just going to repeat what I said last quarter and the quarter before, which is NIKE always has, and we always will, take a long-term view in China. We've been there for 40 years... We have built up a very strong brand connection with the consumer in China. We're going to continue to invest to lead in China."
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We've discussed this but I think it is a huge risk to any western brand operating in the country. Just look at what happened to H&M. Nike definitely has stronger customer loyalty but still
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Stock Metal Investment Substack
I love trying out new things, so I opened a Substack for my monthly portfolio updates. First post coming later today after work, feel free to check it out and sign up for free https://stockmetalinvestment.substack.com/p/coming-soon
Lester Leong's avatar
$11.7m follower assets
Beginner guide to all major cryptos
First off, this is a repost from u/WhiskasTheCat (<- all credit goes to that guy), but it was so funny that I had to share.

The crypto space can be overwhelming for beginners, there's just so many coins!
But fret not, I created simple explanations for all major coins to help you level up your crypto knowledge. Enjoy!

Bitcoin (BTC): The first crypto currency, created by Nvidia to boost graphics card sales
Ethereum (ETH): BTC but can also calculate your taxes
Tether (USDT): US dollar but what if the money printer had a modem
BNB (BNB): ETH but what if rug pulls were cheaper
XRP (XRP): CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) beta release
Cardano (ADA): A whitepaper became self aware, grew a beard and created a crypto currency
Solana (SOL): ETH but what if <SEG FAULT #F9E7>
Dogecoin (DOGE): BTC but what if dog
Polkadot (DOT): You throw a party for blockchains but nobody shows up
Avalanche (AVAX): ETH but you think it's too simple and make it 3 blockchains
Polygon (MATIC): ETH but you want to run ETH on it
Litecoin (LTC): Dogecoin beta release
Uniswap (UNI): What if you wanted to swap 1 ETH worth of coins for a fee of 2 ETH
Chainlink (LINK): What if random numbers cost money
Cronos (CRO): You create a coin but you don't like it having use cases so you remove them
Monero (XMR): BTC but what if it pissed off regulators even more
Algorand (ALGO): What if you brought democracy to a blockchain without bombing it first
Bitcoin Cash (BCH): BTC but with an insolvent CEO
VeChain (VET): What if your coin's use case doesn't work out so you try out a new one every month
The Sandbox (SAND): Minecraft but what if it was designed by a hedge fund
ApeCoin (APE): What if you bought an ape JPEG for 1 million USD and still had money left over
Internet Computer (ICP): ETH but what if the price chart was reversed
Filecoin (FIL): Google Drive but what if you paid Bob to store your data instead
Axie Infinity (AXS): A full time job where your salary can get hacked
EOS (EOS): What if you were the cool kid once but now work at McDonalds
Aave (AAVE): What if you got liquidated but it's decentralized so it's ok
IOTA (MIOTA): What if your toaster could trade crypto currencies
THORChain (RUNE): Created by Marvel fans to get Chris Hemsworth's attention
Loopring (LRC): Polygon but partnered with dying retail stores
Nano (XNO): A fast and feeless currency so good that nobody wants to use it
Terra (LUNA v2): Created for ponzi scheme victims that still had money left over
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAH, I haven't laughed this hard in a while. This is premium content
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Leandro's avatar
$123.2m follower assets
How long does a technological revolution last?
I have started reading the book "Technological revolutions and financial capital" by Carlota Perez and found this chart pretty interesting.

According to the author, technological revolutions typically last around 50 years and are divided into 4 phases:

It's often the case when the tech is already there but the society and the institutions must be willing to adapt to it. This is why it takes some time until the revolution reaches phase one.

This lag, imho, might be what happened during the dotcom bubble. The internet was in gestation period but stock prices were already reflecting explosive growth. The revolution came, but it did so later than investors anticipated.

What do you think will be the next technological revolution?
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Comparing $UBER to $DASH (delivery perspective)
Here are the gross booking numbers from Uber's latest earnings report:

And here are the revenues and their source from Uber's latest earnings report:

And here are numbers from DoorDash's latest earnings report

In this memo, I'm focusing on revenues from UberEats and from DoorDash.

Looking at $UBER:
  • Delivery booking grew by 12% YoY
  • Delivery revenues grew by 44% YoY

Looking at $DASH:
  • Revenues grew by 35% YoY
  • Total orders grew 23% YoY

Overall, it looks like Uber continues to grow faster than its biggest peer in the food delivery space despite the fact that DoorDash is purely focused on delivery while Uber is a conglomerate that is focused on many other types of services like rides and freight.
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Portfolio Update: June
I posted my thoughts on the month of June, along with some changes I have made to the portfolio in recent weeks. I continue to hold a sizable cash position (~20%). As cash comes in, I slowly reallocate to my strongest, highest conviction companies. However, I have stopped adding to a few positions, and have reduced the pace at which I am adding to a few more.

Slowing: $CFLT, $SHOP, $U

Stopped Adding: $GDRX, $SE

Check it out:

Benjamin Buchanan's avatar
$16.4m follower assets
Good morning everyone! 1 Week off of caffeine...
I don't feel the same Joie de Vivre in the morning but energy levels throughout the day are definitely improved.

Hope everyone has a wonderful 4th even if it's just a normal Monday for you!
Did some research a while ago and turns out there is a particular gene that separates the fast caffeine digesters from the slow released ones. You are likely to feel that crash if your system digests it fast. I on the other hand am amongst the slow digesters. Very grateful for that haha
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Benjamin Buchanan's avatar
$16.4m follower assets
Biggest companies in 1917, 1967, and 2017
Note all values are adjusted for inflation. Also note how far Big Tech has run since 2017. Lastly, isn't it surprising how much larger the corporations are today compared to the giants of the past? This time is feeling different. Network effects, the scalability of zero marginal cost, globalization, GDP / Population growth (might be the biggest?) what else can we attribute the massive increases to?
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sam stribling's avatar
$108.7m follower assets
Wait.. Whaa?
Since you are reading this I presume you are a CNBC junkie too but one article I saw today has me scratching my head a bit.


This is what puzzles me about the article; It seems a bit circular that oil prices are tanking due to the recession they have effectively caused.. Energy and Food costs have been the driving factors of inflation, forcing the FED's hand to raise rates to tamper demand. The fundamental flaw I see in this logic is that this inflation, in my opinion, is supply side driven. Additionally, it seems the markets memory is even shorter than usual.

We have apparently forgotten the following already:
  • We are still draining our strategic reserve to the tune of 1M barrels of oil per day.
  • Oil production has not ramped as vigorously as many expected
  • Refining capacities appear to be the next major bottle neck in the energy supply chain
  • China is starting to open back up and with it will come energy demand

In conclusion, I would not trust a swing like this as anything more than the market trying to find its way. I would go further to bet that we are not out of the woods yet when it comes to energy prices, specifically Oil & Gas.

Feel free to add or poke holes in my logic in the comments! Honestly, I wouldn't mind being wrong on this one as I believe energy costs are behind the majority of the markets woes this year.
Josh Kohn-Lindquist's avatar
$17m follower assets
Quick and (Probably Too) Easy P/S Trick
Unprofitable growth stocks can be incredibly frustrating to try and value.

Take $U, for example. Its P/S has dropped from above 50 to just 9 in the last year.

Great! But what the hell does that mean?

That's where this overly-simplistic trick comes in.

Since we have no idea what its potential profitability could become once it matures, let's project them to have a 10% profit margin (slightly below the S&P 500 median).

This assumption flips the P/S figure of 9 on its head and gives us a P/E of 90 -- based on that 10% margin. (P/S of 9 divided by Profit Margin of .1 = Projected P/E of 90)

Obviously, this is a MASSIVE assumption and just a thought experiment as a simple way to wrap your mind around a stock's P/S.

However, (at least in my weird mind), this gives me a tangible feeling of what its earnings potential costs at today's price.

Of course, we can adjust this 10% profit margin to meet the realities of any stock.

Consider $CPNG. Management guides for long-term EBITDA margins of 10% -- so it is more realistic to give them a profit margin of 5% over the long haul.

Trading at just 1.2 times sales, this 5% profit margin would create a projected P/E of 24. (1.2/.05=24)

Once again, I am taking significant liberties, saying that Coupang will ever get to a 5% profit margin, but it shows that if it can get there in time, its growth looks enticing at these prices.

I might get crushed for making such assumptions, and I realize this is very over-simplified.

Still, I was curious if you all had a similar type of analysis that you use for unprofitable growth stocks?
P/S divided by your expected long-term profit margin for a stock is:
10 VotesPoll ends on: 07/08/22
I’d say a starting point, but would require more work. I’d say using a price to gross profit multiple, or EBIT (if they have it) is maybe more useful.
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I’ve been repositioning my capital and starting new positions in companies from my watchlist, what has your strategy been? Has it changed recently?
How are you adjusting your portfolio in today’s market?
13 VotesPoll ends on: 07/06/22
10 Books For Tech Investors
Thought this would be fun. Here are a few that have shaped my ideas and approach to investing.

  1. Zero To One - Peter Thiel w Blake Masters

One of the most influential books on my understanding of tech companies. If you want to decipher the ingredients that produce world-changing businesses, this is one to read. There's a lot on the factors that produce monopolies - a desirable outcome for any investor as it generally correlates to growth and returns. While it's more oriented towards startups and entrepreneurs, it applies to all tech companies.

  1. The Most Important Thing - Howard Marks

Marks is one of the most lucid educators and practitioners of this craft. Wisdom accumulated and applicable to all investors. Extremely useful, and an anchor of good sense to get back to when times are tough.

  1. Security Analysis - Graham and Dodd

The nuts and bolts. A little outdated and dry, but still extremely useful for spotting good investments and avoiding bad ones. Substitute with The Intelligent Investor for a more palatable read. Graham and Dodd were the cheap value kind, and I'd classify myself as a growth investor - growth is a subset value IMO.

  1. Beating The Street - Peter Lynch

Common sense investing. Peter ideated so much of the modern wisdom good retail investors utilize and this book has it all. You don't need to be a genius, and anyone can invest. There's a lot on growth investing in this that Graham/Dodd don't quite cover - Letting your winners run for example. Peter also holds one of the world's best track records - averaging 29% annualized over 13 years with the Magellan Fund.

  1. Thinking, Fast And Slow - Daniel Kahneman

Psychology is often intertwined with investing and this is one of the best books out there on decision-making. By A Nobel Prize-winning economist. It blew my mind when I read it and was thoroughly engaging. I catch myself coming back to this book many a time for advice when I'm thinking about thinking.

  1. Hedge Fund Market Wizards - Jack D. Schwager

A collection of interviews with the world's best traders. Market Wizards form a series of books, and this is just one of them. Read them all if you have the time. Stock picking is half of it, but risk management and trading are the whole other half of it. Actionable insights for risk management for every investor - from the world's best risk-takers.

  1. The Hard Thing About Hard Things - Ben Horowitz

Inside the tech company operator's mind and experiences. One of the cornerstone reads for tech entrepreneurs and operators. It humanizes and contextualizes the business you're investing in so you might understand the intangibles better. So much is about reading between the lines on earnings calls, and this helped me gain a valuable perspective on the other side. By Horowitz from the now storied VC Andreessen Horowitz.

  1. Damodaran On Valuation

Want to get seriously academic? This is the one book to learn about valuation. Valuations always matter. This book will give you the tools to help baseline your euphoria or despair towards a goal and visible returns in the midst of chaos. Tough work getting through it, but you'll be as effective as the pros if you do all the exercises. Written by a rockstar professor, and possibly the best teacher on valuation around today.

  1. More Money Than God - Sebastian

An account of the hedge fund industry's history and all its key characters across time. How hedging came to be, how advantages came and went, the rise and fall of big funds, do these guys actually produce alpha? Mistakes, strategies, successes, failures, and the alternative asset management engine.

  1. Fooled By Randomness - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Finding narratives in places where there are none - is a mistake I've seen too many investors make. I've certainly embellished in building stories to suit my thesis out of weak data too and paid the price. Taleb cuts through our ability to produce nonsense and points out fallacious biases. A good book on psychology, decision making, and investing in the markets - and a reminder to be humble.

What are your favourite investing books? Comment down below.
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Great list. Of the ones not listed I also liked..
The Psycology of Money - Morgan Housel
100 Baggers - Christopher Mayer
Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits - Phillip Fisher
The Warren Buffet Way - Robert Hagstrom
The Outsiders - William Thorndike
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Commonstock is a social network that amplifies the knowledge of the best investors, verified by actual track records for signal over noise. Community members can link their existing brokerage accounts and share their real time portfolio, performance and trades (by percent only, dollar amounts never shared). Commonstock is not a brokerage, but a social layer on top of existing brokerages helping to create more engaged and informed investors.