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Beaver Capital's avatar
$98.1m follower assets
Sept'22 - Growth Portfolio Update
Sells: None

  • Deployed some cash and will continue to do so on weakness. I view this compression as LT discounts on my favorite growth businesses.

YTD return: -39.4%
  • Down 5.5% from end of Aug.
  • Sept was a tough month with lots of volatility and lived up to its rep as historically the worst performing month.
  • That being said, I invest for the long-term so this gives me opportunity to add at attractive prices imo.

Other comments:
  • I want to add to $MELI if price falls further on any weakness, but has held up relatively well
  • $NU was a new position for me in Aug, but I added to it this month bringing up to 2.8%
  • Still planning to deposit & invest more cash in these names on weakness

I look forward to the next bull run and am working to position myself in the best possible way for when that time comes!
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Lester Leong's avatar
$19.5m follower assets
Getting Assigned
Me dumping all of my excess stock at market open
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sam stribling's avatar
$115.9m follower assets
Stock Pundits..
PSA! Extra extra read all about it! You are hearing it here first!

I can’t count how many pundits I’ve heard talking about the Fed reversing course on its rate hike vs. inflation strategy. Personally, I don’t know what they are smoking but it’s gotta be good to think that’s gonna happen.

The UN is the latest calling for a shift from QT to QE and in fact some countries are changing course. The fed, however, I don’t think can turn the ship around even if they wanted to at this point. I expect they continue hiking as planned as they have already openly stated that they are prepared for “pain” to slow the economy to combat inflation.

As for the current state of affairs, y’all can call me Dan Rather because I have more news for you. We are already in a recession.

Stick to your strategies, raise cash, expect more volatility!
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Like I said on Twitter, I loved your writeup. I'm thankful that SA didn't put a paywall on me and I got to learn the difference between analog chips and digital chips.
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Leandro's avatar
$130.8m follower assets
How Mark Zuckerberg thinks about messaging and social media apps
All the screenshots above are from Alphasense where you have a two-week free trial to read and download all the transcripts you want (no CC required). You can start your free trial here.

A former product manager at WhatsApp explains Mark Zuckerberg's concept to differentiate between social media and messaging apps: living rooms and town squares:

Operating in a living room or a town square has important implications for monetization.

Can messaging apps transition to a paid tier as audio and video streaming did? Remains to be seen.

Business monetization is the simpler path
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Elon Musk's renewed interest in buying out Twitter $TWTR was probably due to the fact that he sees investor confidence in $TSLA plunging.

The AI Day presentation that Tesla recently did bring way more skepticism on the company's innovative potential than positive reviews. Boston Dynamics is the firm that people often talk about alongside Tesla after the presentation, with many noting how Boston Dynamics makes more advanced robots and that Tesla's robots look like something from a science fair project.

As Tesla looks to produce robots, a question investors should be asking is why they're choosing to divert attention away from their main business: producing & selling electric vehicles.

Does Tesla see robot assistants as a product that can allow them to compete without competition?

Does Tesla fear that they will endure the curse that first-movers happen to receive?
Lester Leong's avatar
$19.5m follower assets
Finding good DD
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$SPY will be over $376.67/share on 10/5/2022
10 Votes
Fintwit's avatar
$125.4m follower assets
September vs. October
The U.S. stock market is having its best start to a quarter since the beginning of 2009.
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ParrotStock's avatar
$265m follower assets
BP Layoffs at Toledo Refinery
BP has laid off most contractors at their 160,000 barrel-per-day Toledo, Ohio refinery.

I have no direct insight into their decisions, but a typical response to similar incidents is an all hands on deck approach to get back up and running.

Therefore, these lay-offs are somewhat surprising, and indicate that the refinery will likely be down for some time. It's also a pretty good bet that they will not be running much (if any) auxiliary units with purchased feedstocks.

Short version; 160k barrels of production capacity just came off the market indefinitely. This will add pressure to the supply side of transportation fuels, especially in the region they operate in.

Cenovus Energy owns 50% of this refinery along with BP, and they had an agreement to purchase the remaining 50% from BP. The deal was expected to close by the end of 2022, but I wonder if it is effected by the plant being down for (likely) at least the rest of the year?

Regardless, it's not good for BP (or Cenovus). It will however strengthen margins for other refiners who manage to continue to avoid significant unplanned down time.

I feel for those who were laid off, but at least there is a lot of demand for employment in the industry right now. Much better employment situation than there was 2 years ago.

I also continue to pray for Max and Ben Morrissey, the two brothers who were killed in the incident. 🙏

I can't believe you are only 23 years old! You know way more than I did back then probably even more than I do now.

It might be because I'm currently reading "Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits" by Philip A. Fisher, but you have a very similar allocation that he describes in his book. Did you read his book by chance? I believe it's chapter 9 in the book.

Keep up the great work!
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Neil's avatar
$34.9m follower assets
Amazon stock
Amazon is now my 3rd largest holding (close to being tied with $SQ )

It's an incredible business and yes, I know, the stock is at the same price it was back in 2020. But the company is planting seeds for future growth in all segments of the business.

Samuel Meciar's avatar
$23.1m follower assets
October 2022 portfolio update
New month, new portfolio update. Not much has changed this month, very few transactions as I'm mostly done with my consolidation process. I did a few adds here and there, sold $TTD & initiated $MA. Staying focused.

Down 13% YTD.
Other brokerage: $ADYEY
Watchlist: $MNDY & $PLTR.
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@sammeciar thanks for portfolio update Sam. Just a question in relation to $TSLA were you able to catch the presentation of Optimus?
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Leandro's avatar
$130.8m follower assets
Focus your energy on what matters
There are literally 100s of high quality companies that are worth looking into, but still some long-only investors focus their time and energy on companies they hate

Difficult for me to understand
I really resonate with this mindset but I think it is something that we must proactively train ourselves to do. Research shows that our brains evolved to react much more strongly to negative experiences than positive ones. It kept us safe from danger. But in the modern day, where physical danger is minimal, it often just gets in the way of progress. The same holds true for investing.
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I'm not taking the Credit Suisse bankruptcy rumors seriously
I wrote a memo on this recently, but it seemed like it didn't upload on Commonstock. If you do see a replica of my memo, know that this memo was made in case the other memo didn't upload.

I've seen this story happen a couple of times. As we're headed into an economic slowdown, there are rumors that "some big firm" is going bankrupt. Back in 2019, people thought that Tesla was going bankrupt. Sometime around that, people thought that Deutsche Bank was going bankrupt too. During the early days of the pandemic, people thought it was American Airlines. And now, people are thinking it's Credit Suisse.

Back in 2007, when Lehman Brothers' CEO talked about having adequate liquidity days before the company declared bankruptcy, the idea that hearing CEOs talking about having adequate liquidity as a sign of concern became coined. Since then, every time we hear CEOs talk about the firm having adequate liquidity, people jump to the conclusion that there's something to be concerned about.

It's odd to think that when a CEO tells you that their firm has the resources to survive a downturn, we would think negatively about it. But thanks to Lehman Brothers, investors' trust in CEOs has diminished immensely. And it's evident with the Credit Suisse news, rumors, and talk that's going around.

The first time I followed through on a rumor that a major company was going bankrupt, was in the beginning and middle of 2019 with Tesla. Personally, I thought Tesla would go bankrupt in 2019. All the cash burn and signs of diminishing demand, as well as the large number of non-Tesla electric vehicles coming into the market. Trade wars were diminishing the prestige of American goods as people living in other countries started becoming nationalistic while at the same time wanting to avoid the tariffs that came with American imports.

Tesla historically had elevated credit default swap prices. But during the first half of 2019, with all of those bankruptcy rumors, those credit default swaps went through the roof.

But of course, Tesla is still here today and is one of the largest companies in the world.

Now for Deutsche Bank. There were rumors that they would go bankrupt as well. Those rumors dragged on for years (if I remember correctly). Today, they're still here. And their credit default swaps haven't surged as immensely as Credit Suisse's credit default swaps today.

During the early days of the pandemic, if anyone remembers, Boeing's CEO said that a major US airline will go bankrupt. American Airlines was thought to be the one that will go bankrupt because its credit default swaps were the most expensive and it had the highest debt load.

Today, American Airlines is here. And they benefited from the large travel season of 2022.

And here we are today, with Credit Suisse. And these rumors all started because the bank talked about having adequate liquidity to weather a huge reversal in economic activity.

From a banking investor's perspective, they would like to know whether the firm will do well as it enters a downturn. Being big on investment banking, Credit Suisse was expected to experience a significant reversal from growth to decline in its revenues. The investment banking industry went from thriving to going to a sudden standstill. Like someone turned on and then turned off the lights.

It's great to hear that Credit Suisse has adequate liquidity. It's great to see that they're trying to be as transparent as possible as some people interpreted their good news as bad.

I have a good feeling that these rumors will go away. As the downturn comes, I wouldn't be surprised to see that Credit Suisse has survived thanks to its adequate liquidity.

Like Tesla, like American Airlines, and like Deutsche Bank, and heck, even WeWork $WE, many of these companies will survive. And I believe that Credit Suisse will also survive.
First post…

Dumped Deutsche Bank $DBK today. Bought back in 2018. Why? Cause I just thought the stock would do better being such a big name. Couldn’t be further from the truth…

With all of the mumbling around $CS this weekend, I’d decided I’d had enough and wanted my cash back (what little is left of it), ready to be deployed somewhere else that might actually see some gains.
A) Welcome to Commonstock
B) I was looking for someone who sold $DBK or $CS
C) Love the profile pic

Regarding B— it's looking like they're not in risk of bankruptcy, but also slim likelihood that the stock will appreciate. I'm with you on selling.
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Jared Watson's avatar
$19.2m follower assets
September Portfolio Update
Fairly chill month for trades, all things considered. $SNOW continues to be overweight in my portfolio, which I'm comfortable with. Flipped the lowest confidence piece of my portfolio, $FSLY, for $UPST after waiting out the wash sale period. I'll still be monitoring $FSLY at the top of my watch list to see if their new CEO shows signs of righting the ship.

My priority for October is monitoring the Mobileye IPO, which $INTC filed for late last week. Mobileye is and has been one of my favorite private companies for a long time, and I'm excited to see what type of valuation they'll get in this depressed market.

Word on The Street is they're looking at a ~$30 billion IPO right now, which is a price point that I'd be interested to slowly scale into. If I do enter into a position after they IPO, likely in the next couple of weeks, I'll put out a research report to explain why I'm a big fan of the company.

As always, let me know if you have any questions and I'll get back to you ASAP.
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That target position…respect it. Also would love to hear some quick thoughts about Mobileye. I know a lot of people are interested. Gimmie quick paragraph while I wait for your research in coming weeks lol
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Samuel Meciar's avatar
$23.1m follower assets
How important is to you the CEO and management when you're deciding whether to add a company into your portfolio?
Credit Suisse Drama Debriefing: Daily Contrarian
Good morning contrarians! Stock futures are mixed as the UK government pulls back on some of its Thatcherite ambitions…

We had some drama with $CS over the weekend. That and other factors moving markets are addressed in this morning’s briefing and podcast:

sam stribling's avatar
$115.9m follower assets
How is no one talking about this?
Market rallies for some reason meanwhile a country’s energy grid collapses and no one is gonna bother to mention it?
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