@007

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槍打出頭鳥 - the bird who sticks his head out gets shot
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Temperature check - i have to say i am the latter, but want peoples take...
mind often heads here in precipitous sell offs, but.....
Is bitcoin a ponzi scheme fuelled by the feds zero interest rate policy or a legitimate store of value that will hit USD$100k in the future?
56%it's a ponzi
43%totally legit
16 VotesPoll ended on: 06/15/22
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Stan Druck - laying it out for us all... best of the best
Ira Sohn - Stan Druckenmiller Interview Notes - 6/9 - Key quotes:

On markets:
• We are 6 months into a bear market that has more room to run. It’s highly highly probable that the bear market has a ways to run.
On Economy:
• Probability of a soft landing are pretty remote, you are going against decades of history.
• Once inflation gets above 5%, it’s never come down without Fed Funds got above the CPI (note: today Fed Funds is 83bps and priced to peak at 3.3% Q2 2023). Don’t think fed funds gets there, but tells you something.
• Once inflation is above 5%, it’s never been tamed without a recession. If you are predicting a soft landing, you are going against decades of history. Could happen, anything is possible, but odds stacked against you.
• Depending on who you listen to, we have $1.5T-$2T of excess savings now, it may take some times to work through those savings, but given the extent of the asset bubble, destruction of markets, what’s going on in Ukraine, China 0 Covid, I don’t take a lot of comfort from that.
• I assume we have a recession in 2023, I just don’t know if it’s in the 1H or 2H, but again this is a guess, not a fact.
On inflation:
• Fed says food and energy inflation don’t count since they aren’t core. Well go tell that to a labor union. You think the labor union won’t negotiate higher wages (which in turn drive further inflation)?
• Every deflation has followed an asset bubble bursting. Since the Fed has created an asset bubble, even with a lot of air let out, it’s so big, have to be open minded to the consequences.
On positioning:
• Was net short equities until 2-3 weeks ago. My anticipation is I will be going back to the short equity position if the market affords me. If not, I will just sidestep a decline, not the worst thing in the world.
• A lot of very good companies have derated 60-70% without a whole lot of change in fundamentals. Not yet ready to buy though, I’m too bearish on the world to go there yet. Some of these may be too cheap to be my shorts anymore though.
• I’ve lived through so many bears markets where if you get aggressive on the short side, you can get your head ripped off on rallies.
• If market rallies 15-20% from here, I will take a shot short equities because 6 month bear markets preceded by asset bubbles don’t exist, and I still think we have a lot of wood to chop.
• My go to recession hedge (long treasuries) is more complicated because inflation is 8% (bonds don’t do as well in a high inflationary environment).
• Things are a lot harder now. We are now getting definitive signals that the economy is weakening, particularly at the front end. While I’m not comfortable owning bonds, I’m much less comfortable being short fixed income vs. 3-6 months ago when it looked like a much better risk reward.
• If you think we will have irresponsible monetary policy with too high inflation going forward, if it’s in a bull phase you want to own bitcoin, but if it’s in a bear phase, you want to own gold.
• In a bear market stagflation type of thing, I would want to own gold.
On process:
• Best economist is inside of the stock market (cyclicals vs. defensives), it’s allowed us to outperform Fed economic forecasts for 20-30 years. Second best economist is the bond market, though this has been distorted by QE last 10 years.
• Stocks tend to lead the fundamentals by somewhere between 6-12 months, and certain industries tend to lead the economy. The obvious one everyone knows about is housing. Housing is traditionally looked as a leading indicator. Retail has a slight lead, capital goods has a lag.
• Today homebuilders are down 50% despite supposedly good fundamentals, trucking down 40% despite record earnings, retailers down – there are signs that there is economic trouble ahead.
On stocks:
• Last 1 year was one of best short selling period. There was never more obvious over-earners, particularly in brick & mortar retail. You see companies that don’t grow for 15 years, and then all of a sudden stocks have quadrupled. It didn’t take a rocket science to figure out 2-3 years from now people will start traveling again, companies will overspend, all the stuff that typically happens.
• Today’s over-earners are the shipping companies that have massive margins. Can envision a world where world trade isn’t booming in 2 years.
On energy/energy stocks:
• Still there, very nervous, no longer a unique thesis.
• Reason we are still there is we think this thing is more sustainable because of ESG and that doesn’t seem priced into stocks. But not a classic play because it is widely recognized. But we don’t sell things just because it is widely recognized, still cheap, I don’t care about pain trades.
• The risk is if you get a worldwide recession. We are looking for demand destruction in energy, but don’t yet see it.
Other:
• 45 years as a CIO, I’ve never seen such a constellation where there is no historic analogue. Right now I have more humility in terms of my views going forward than maybe ever. Very important to be open minded – the ending is not predictable. 2008 was a no brainer. This isn’t.
• Will be surprised if I’m not short the dollar in the next 6 months as $14T has come into the US as we were the first to tighten and a story of American exceptionalism
• Best advice from my mentor: he made me focus on what moves the stock price. You can’t just say Stan this is a great company, tell me how people will think differently in 18-24 months from what they think now. Do not invest in the present. The present does not move stock prices, change does.
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Tech and commodities
are the only two sectors i would be buying in this massacre. Tech is so universally covered and understood in this forum, but for anyone wanting more on commodities follow @jennymanydots - the super cycle is coming and we need to get educated. anyone else on here doing good work on mining ?
Agree with this and a big fan of Lithium, Nickel, Iron Ore and Copper.
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Twitter financing risk - see image attached
what will the outcome be?
46%Margin Called
53%First Trillionaire
15 VotesPoll ended on: 04/27/22
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Shien has had a lot of backlash for the lack of transparency with its supply chain. They appear to have developed a negative perception from the public with regard to their business practices. Sustainability, employee wellbeing and durability are not something they are associated with. As someone who has shopped from Shien I did find that their items to be of lower quality.

That being said they are extremely quick to react to trends are growing rapidly. However I am not sure this will be enough in the long run.

Are their any other fashion retail companies that you have been watching closely ?
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S4
for those with an eye on Europe, UK - does anyone have any idea whats going on at S4, Martin Sorrels business?
Audit concerns. My colleague knows S4 in detail. I'll get his take and report back. Might not be until Monday though.
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